In my last post, I went out on a limb and predicted Ted Cruz might defy the polls and win an upset victory in Indiana. Perhaps that was just wishful thinking as I like the idea of keeping the competition going a little longer. Donald Trump, however, won the contest by a good 20 points, crushing his two opponents.
More significantly, in light of his loss, Ted Cruz has decided to end his campaign for the Presidency. He realized that Indiana was one of the most favorable States for him left on the calendar. If he could not win there, he was likely looking at continued losses for the rest of the primary season.
John Kasich still has not quit. But since he still has fewer delegates than Marco Rubio, who dropped out after Super Tuesday, no one takes his candidacy seriously at this point. It seems that Republicans have accepted that Trump will be the nominee and want the intra-party fighting to stop. With Cruz out, there does not appear to be any realistic option that would prevent Trump from obtaining the Republican nomination.
Trump now has 1047 delegates. He needs only 190 of the remaining 520 still available. Unless something completely unexpected and game changing happens, he should be able to obtain those delegates before the convention.
On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton lost in Indiana. Bernie Sanders pulled out a five point victory. Voters on the Democratic side clearly are not ready to end their intra-party fighting. That said, any race at this point that Sanders fails to win by at least 50 points means that his chances of pulling ahead of Clinton only slip farther away.
Including Super delegates, Clinton has 2202 delegates, meaning she needs less than 200 of the remaining 1163 to obtain a majority. Given the proportional distribution of delegates, winning only 20% of the voters in each of the remaining States will still hand Clinton her majority.
Trump and Clinton will be the major party nominees. They say we get the leaders we deserve. I wonder what we did to deserve this.
Showing posts with label Indiana Primary. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Indiana Primary. Show all posts
Wednesday, May 4, 2016
Sunday, May 1, 2016
Indiana Primary
Indiana gets is moment of attention this week as candidates head into the Primary on May 3. Indiana is an interesting State. It has always been much more conservative than the rest of the mid-west. Unlike its neighbors, Indiana received its original population from the south, as they moved up the Ohio River.
Republicans:
Pundits have proclaimed Indiana a "must win" for Ted Cruz. With the last half dozen primaries in States were Cruz was never expected to do well, the highly conservative and deeply Republican Indiana should be fertile territory for Cruz. Even John Kasich has agreed not to campaign there, in order to give Cruz a better shot at this winner take all State with 57 delegates.
That said, Donald Trump consistently beats Cruz in most polls, though usually by single digits. Indiana has a open Primary, meaning independents can vote. This tends to favor Trump over Cruz.
With every delegate at issue, Indiana provides another opportunity either for Trump to continue the line that he is inevitable at this point, or for Cruz to show there is still strong opposition to the party's front runner. Although the polls still favor Trump, I think Cruz has a good chance here. If he cannot win in Indiana, the rest of the primary calendar looks much harder for him. I'm going to go out on a limb and say Cruz pulls off a surprise win in Indiana.
Democrats:
Hillary Clinton also maintains a single digit lead in most polls. Indiana does not have a large number of minorities, who tend to favor Clinton over Sanders. But its Democrats tend to be more moderate than the typical Sanders supporter. Clinton should eke out a win here.
In then end though, because Democrats have a proportional award of the 92 delegates available, a win by a few points by one or the other candidate really matters little. I would only affect a small number of delegates awarded. Because Sanders needs overwhelming victories in every single remaining contest, even a close win here only reduces Sanders' already minute chance of victory at the Convention. That said, he will likely not even get that. Expect a Clinton victory.
Republicans:
Pundits have proclaimed Indiana a "must win" for Ted Cruz. With the last half dozen primaries in States were Cruz was never expected to do well, the highly conservative and deeply Republican Indiana should be fertile territory for Cruz. Even John Kasich has agreed not to campaign there, in order to give Cruz a better shot at this winner take all State with 57 delegates.
That said, Donald Trump consistently beats Cruz in most polls, though usually by single digits. Indiana has a open Primary, meaning independents can vote. This tends to favor Trump over Cruz.
With every delegate at issue, Indiana provides another opportunity either for Trump to continue the line that he is inevitable at this point, or for Cruz to show there is still strong opposition to the party's front runner. Although the polls still favor Trump, I think Cruz has a good chance here. If he cannot win in Indiana, the rest of the primary calendar looks much harder for him. I'm going to go out on a limb and say Cruz pulls off a surprise win in Indiana.
Democrats:
Hillary Clinton also maintains a single digit lead in most polls. Indiana does not have a large number of minorities, who tend to favor Clinton over Sanders. But its Democrats tend to be more moderate than the typical Sanders supporter. Clinton should eke out a win here.
In then end though, because Democrats have a proportional award of the 92 delegates available, a win by a few points by one or the other candidate really matters little. I would only affect a small number of delegates awarded. Because Sanders needs overwhelming victories in every single remaining contest, even a close win here only reduces Sanders' already minute chance of victory at the Convention. That said, he will likely not even get that. Expect a Clinton victory.
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