What to watch on election night 2020.  

Traditionally major news organization will wait to call a state for a candidate until the polls close in that state.  They used to make earlier predictions, but were criticized for having possibly inaccurate predictions affect the turnout in key states.   Therefore, they now wait until the polls close.  In many cases the outcome was a foregone conclusion. If an election in a given state appears to be a route, the new organizations will call it within the first minute of polls closing. If there is still doubt, they will wait to see more results.

This year will be tougher to call early for many states.  Large numbers of write in ballots meant that it could take days, rather than hours, to call an outcome.  When states begin to provide partial results, it is easy to think of those numbers as a good sampling of the ultimate count.  This is not the case.  Many times some jurisdictions produce results faster than others.  Since a candidate doing well in some parts of a state does not indicate how they will do in others, that is not a reliable indicator. However, if a candidate is doing much better or worse in a particular precinct, that may be more indicative.

The conventional wisdom in 2020 is that Biden will do better in the written ballots.  Trump supporters are more likely to avoid Covid-19 risks and go to the polls in person.  Biden supporters are more likely to submit mail in ballots.  Therefore, you may see early Trump leads in many states as electronic polling results are submitted, then see that lead fade when the mail in votes are counted.  Some states, like the key swing state of Pennsylvania, do not allow poll workers even to begin counting mail in ballots until election day.  Therefore, the tedious process of counting ballots that were mailed a month ago may take days to count after election day. 

7:00 PM eastern time is when the first polls (I'm going to use eastern time for all times I mention, just for consistency's sake).  I'm going to put in bold those key states that are considered ones to watch closely:

• Georgia - is up for grabs but went Trump in2016.  Biden has a slight edge in the polls.  It will probably be too close to call right away. A Biden win in Georgia probably spells doom for Trump.  An early call for Trump here would not be fatal for Biden but might indicate a trend of Trump appearing stronger than the polls predict. Georgia also has a tossup Senate race (actually two) which may decide control of the Senate.
• Indiana - conservative home of the VP should be an early call for Trump
• Kentucky - conservative and should be an early call for Trump.  Senator Mitch McConnell has faced serious competition here but is expected to win.
• South Carolina - conservative and should be an early call for Trump.  Senator Lindsey Graham has an even tougher fight, but is expected to win.  An unlikely Graham defeat would presage almost certain Democrat control of the Senate
• Virginia - has trended Democrat in recent elections and should be an early call for Biden.
• Vermont - liberal bastion should be an early call for Biden.

Shortly after 7:00 a likely tie election would have an electoral count like this (if you see a candidate begin to exceed these numbers, he is the likely winner):

Biden - 16

Trump - 44

7:30 PM has three poll closings:

• North Carolina - This is a swing state that voted for Trump in 2016. Biden has a slight edge in the polls.  Whoever wins here will be a good indication for the overall winner.  Although Biden still has a good path to victory without this state, Trump does not. NC also has a tossup Senate campaign that may indicate control of the Senate.
• Ohio - generally a conservative leaning state that voted for Trump in 2016.  The race is a statistical dead heat here.  Trump really must win Ohio to have any chance of a national victory.
• West Virginia - conservative state that should be an early call for Trump.

Shortly after 7:30 a likely tie election would have an electoral count like this:

Biden - 16

Trump - 82

8:00 sees a large number of poll closings:

• Alabama - conservative state that should be an early call for Trump.
• Connecticut - liberal state that should be an early call for Biden.
• Delaware - liberal state that should be an early call for favorite-son Biden.
• Florida - this traditional swing state went for Trump in 2016.  It is a must win for Trump in 2020.  Biden has a slight electoral advantage.  Florida will likely be too close to call on election night.
• Illinois - liberal state that should be an early call for Biden.
• Maine - liberal state that should be an early call for Biden.  The state has one electoral vote granted by congressional district.  One of these may be close.  That one swing district it worth watching. Maine also has a tossup Senate campaign that may impact control of the Senate.
• Maryland - liberal state that should be an early call for Biden.
• Massachusetts - liberal state that should be an early call for Biden.
• Mississippi - conservative state that should be an early call for Trump.
• Missouri - conservative state that should be an early call for Trump.
• New Hampshire - leaning liberal state that can be the Republican's best hope for a state win in New England.  Even so, the state is expected to go for Biden.
• New Jersey - liberal state that should be an early call for Biden.
• Oklahoma - conservative state that should be an early call for Trump.
• Pennsylvania - liberal leaning state that went for Trump in 2016.  Biden is well ahead in the polls, but don't expect an early call here.  Trump may have a lead in the results until paper ballots are counted.  
• Rhode Island - liberal state that should be an early call for Biden.
• Tennessee - conservative state that should be an early call for Trump.
• Washington, D.C. - liberal does not describe DC strongly enough.  It has never voted for anyone but a Democrat in its history of voting.  I can call it a week in advance for Biden.

Shortly after 8:00 a likely tie election would have an electoral count like this:

Biden - 116

Trump - 154

8:30 only one state, Arkansas reports  - conservative state that should be an early call for Trump.

Shortly after 8:30 a likely tie election would have an electoral count like this:

Biden - 116

Trump - 160

9:00 - If the results in key states here are known early, that should end speculation about the ultimate winner.

• Arizona - a traditionally conservative state that voted for Trump in 2016, but is trending for Biden this year.  Results here are too close to call and may be an indicator of the national results.
• Colorado - has trended Democrat in recent elections and it expected to be an early call for Biden.
• Kansas - conservative state that should be an early call for Trump.
• Louisiana - conservative state that should be an early call for Trump.
• Michigan - this traditionally liberal state voted for Trump in 2016.  Biden is significantly ahead in the polls this year.  A Biden win here could spell the end for Trump. 
• Minnesota - This traditionally liberal state has the longest Democrat voting streak it the country.  Trump came close to winning hear in 2016.  Biden has substantial polling lead and should be an early call for Biden.
• Nebraska  - conservative state that should be an early call for Trump.
• New Mexico - liberal state that should be an early call for Biden.
• New York - liberal state that should be an early call for Biden.
• North Dakota  - conservative state that should be an early call for Trump.
• South Dakota  - conservative state that should be an early call for Trump.
• Texas - this traditionally conservative state has been showing signs of becoming a swing state in recent elections.  Trump holds a slight polling advantage. If the state fails to go for Trump early, that could presage the end of the election. It is a must-win state for Trump.
• Wisconsin - another traditionally Democrat state where Trump won a slim victory in 2016.  Biden seems to be doing well in the polls.  This is another swing state that should be determinative.
• Wyoming - conservative state that should be an early call for Trump.

Shortly after 9:00 a likely tie election would have an electoral count like this:

Biden - 185

Trump - 247

10:00 If the election is still in contention by this time, a couple of states here may be determinative.

• Iowa - this state trends Republican and went for Trump in 2016.  Biden has a very slight polling lead.  This is a Trump must-win state or could presage a Biden landslide.
• Montana - conservative state that should be an early call for Trump.
• Nevada - this state has trended liberal and by a slim margin supported Clinton in 2016.  Trump had hoped for a pickup here, but is trending Biden.
• Utah - conservative state that should be an early call for Trump.

Shortly after 10:00 a likely tie election would have an electoral count like this:

Biden - 191

Trump - 262

11:00 closes polls on the west coast, which is a Biden must area.

• California - liberal state that should be an early call for Biden.
• Idaho - conservative state that should be an early call for Trump.
• Oregon - liberal state that should be an early call for Biden.
• Washington - liberal state that should be an early call for Biden.

Shortly after 11:00 a likely tie election would have an electoral count like this:

Biden - 265

Trump - 266

12:00 sees polls close for Hawaii - liberal state that should be an early call for Biden.

Shortly after 12:00 a likely tie election would have an electoral count like this:

Biden - 269

Trump - 266

1:00 sees polls close in Alaska - conservative state that should be an early call for Trump.

Shortly after 1:00 a likely tie election would have an electoral count like this:

Biden - 269

Trump - 269

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Key Senate Races to watch on election night:

• Georgia (two seats)
• North Carolina
• Maine
• Iowa
• Montana

Democrats must win two of these seats to hold fifty in the Senate.  Republicans must win four.  Fifty votes give control to the party in the White House since the Vice President breaks all ties.