My Predictions for President

Election predictions are more of an art than a science.  Sure, 80% of state results are a given, but those remaining 20% are usually decisive.  This year is no different.  Most forecasts point to a Biden victory.  Of course, most forecasts pointed to a Clinton victory four years ago, so why believe forecasts this year?

Forecasts take polls of usually a few thousand voters and then extrapolate the results.  They skew their samples to certain demographics.  For example, if a poll had 20% respondents of African Americans but pollsters know that African Americans tend to make up 10% of the voters on election day, they may cut in half the value of the results from their sample.  This is an attempt to correct for sampling errors in the original polling sample.

Of course, to make these corrections, pollsters must guess at voter turnout based on demographics.  Pollsters often guess wrong.  For example, white non-college educated voters turned out in record numbers in 2016, giving Trump a surprise victory.  Some observers noted the enthusiasm of Trump rallies and predicted this higher turnout.  Most pollsters ignore information like that which was hard to quantify.

This year, we are seeing much higher turnout for traditional Democratic voters.  Although they are not showing up at rallies, we are seeing record early voting, and voters standing in long lines to vote early. We are also seeing record returns of mail in voting thanks to many state changes that encouraged mail in voting this year.  Both of those trends tend to favor Democrats.  I would not be suprised if there were five to ten million more total votes this year than in 2016.  A total turnout of 135 million voters, as opposed to 129 million in 2016, would almost certainly favor Biden.

Also, in 2016, much of the undecided vote when to Trump in the last two weeks of the election.  Much of this is blamed on the decision of the Obama Justice Department to re-open the investigation into Clinton's emails in late October.  It made the discussion all about an issue that hurt the Democratic candidate.  This October, there were attempts to push a story about some emails about Biden's son Hunter which indicated corruption.  That story has been far less persuasive to voters, probably because it is coming from the other campaign rather than a more objective source. Instead, most discussion has remained on the Covid-19 pandemic, which is again reaching record levels, and which impacted the White House directly with infections in October.  Focus on that issue can only hurt Trump and help Biden.

As a result of more determined turnout and focus on Covid a the October surprise issue, I expect the small undecided vote to swing in favor of Biden.  The end result is that I predict Biden will win every state that Clinton won in 2016, plus seven other states that Trump won narrowly that year.  Those states are Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, Florida, and Arizona.  If this proves correct, Biden will win an overwhelming victory of 351 electoral votes to 187 for Trump.

Note that even if Trump manages to win five of those seven states, Biden would still win the election by a more narrow margin.  If Biden wins Pennsylvania, where he has had more than a 5% margin in most polls, the election is probably over Trump would have to win the others, including Michigan and Wisconsin where Biden is an 8 point favorite.  Trump must win the closer states of Arizona, Georgia, Florida, and North Carolina where Biden is up 1-4 points.  He must also win Iowa and Ohio where the candidates are in a statistical tie. Even with all those wins, Trump would also have to win either Michigan or Pennsylvania to put him over the top.  In short, there are few realistic scenarios for a Trump victory.

All of that said, there may not be a winner called on election night.  Many key states may be too close to call, and may take days to count all the paper ballots submitted this year.  Trump may show an early lead from in person voting, then see that lead disappear as paper ballots are counted.  Democrats are tending to vote by paper in much higher numbers than Republicans.  This, unfortunately, will play into Trumps assertions that paper ballots are fraudulent and that the election was somehow stolen from him.  If a couple of states are close and determinative of the elections, expect post-election litigation and political wrangling that will make Florida 2000 look like a cotillion. 

What a Biden Landslide Looks Like

With the Election only one week away, and with more than one-third of voters already having voted online, momentum seems clearly in Biden's favor. Focus on the Covid-19 epidemic has been unavoidable after the President and most of his staff came down with the illness. Undecideds appear to swing heavily toward Biden. 

 That said, Trump supporters seem more motivated and optimistic than ever. If the level of support in one's vote mattered, Trump would likley have a much better position. But the old one-person, one-vote standard leans in Biden's favor. Many voters who sat out 2016 because they were not crazy about either major party candidate seem to regret that decions and are voting in record numbers. In some states, early voting will surpass the total voting in that state four years earlier. Polling shows biden with solid leads int he key states of Wisconsin (6.8%) Michigan (7.0%) and Pennsylvania (7.2%). These three traditionally Democratic states gave Trump his victory in 2016. Without them, it is hard to see any possible path to a Trump victory. Overcoming a 2-3% polling deficit was possible in 2016. 

It's hard to see overcoming a 7% deficit, especially when high voter turnout benefits Biden. Rather, undecideds seem to be breaking toward Biden. The Biden campaign is pushing for some traditionally red states. Now, this is an old trick. Campaigning in some traditionally red states gets the media push the story line that the election will be a rout and that the campaign has already locked down the toss-ups. Hillary Clinton campaigned in Texas in October 2016 in an attempt to push this story. So, it's not always to be believed. 

The Biden campaign is campaigning in the traditionally red state of Texas, where the two most recent polls show a Biden Victory. The Morning Consult polls showed Trump leading in the state 49% to 47% on October 13. Just over a week later, on October 22, that same poll showed a 48%-47% Biden victory. Another 10/25 poll shows a 48% to 45% Biden victory. Overall the last ten polls going back a month still give Trump the edge at 1.6%. But if Texas is in contention, the election is already over. 

There are similar trends appearing in other must win states. In Georgia, the latest poll gives Biden a 47%-46% win in the State, even if the polling average still gives Trump a 1% edge. North Carolina polls show Biden wins in 8 out of 10 polls (one is a tie and one gives Trump a 1% edge). Florida shows the same results in Biden's favor. 

Only in the battleground states of Iowa and Ohio does Trump seem to be holding his own. The only state running clearly counter to this trend is Arizona, where a pretty consistent 5% Biden lead has disappeared in the two most recent polls. Arizona is a must-win for Trump but only a pile-on State for Biden. 

If Biden can manage to swing last minute undecideds in his favor, and pick up all states where polls show him within 2% of winning, the electoral map would look like this:  

That is 413 electoral votes to 125. We haven't seen a victory that lopsided since the first George Bush in in 1988.  A Democrat hasn't pulled that off since 1964.  If it's any consolation to Republicans, neither candidate after those two past lopsided wins managed to win reelection.

For 2020, it is hard to see a path to reelection. 538 gives Biden an 87% chance of winning.  In any scenario for a Trump victory, he must sweep all the close states and win one of the three key states of Wisconsin, Michigan, or Pennsylvania, where Biden appears to have an insurmountable lead.  Even if Trump wins every state south of Virginia, plus pulls off victories in Arizona, Iowa, and Ohio, he still comes up short by about ten votes.

Polls have been wrong before, but this year polling errors may break in favor of Biden, given the unusually large turnout.  I cannot see any realistic outcome other than a clear Biden electoral victory at the polls.

2020 Senate Predictions

With the appearance of a Democratic Presidential victory in November, the next question is whether Democrats will retake the Senate.  If so, that could make the next administration's legislative agenda much easier (assuming the Democrats retain the House as expected).  

Changing the Senate Majority

Winning a Democratic majority in the Senate will require several victories in traditionally red states. Currently, Democrats hold 47 Senate seats to Republican 53 (I count two independents who caucus with the Democrats as Democrats for these purposes).  Democrats must win three seats to get to a 50-50 tie, which would be broken by the Vice President.  Democrats hold 35 seats not up for election this year, whil Republicans hold only 30.

For 2020, Republicans hold 9 seats that are considered so safe that there no realistic chance of a Democratic victory there.  Democrats hold 7 safe seats.  That leaves 19 States at issue.

Republican Safe Seats

Of those remaining, Republican have two likely wins in Kentucky and Mississippi.  Kentucky Senator Mitch McConnell is facing a fierce challenge, but is expected to win 538 gives him a 96% chance of victory. Similarly, Democrat Mike Espy has made Mississippi a fight, but 538 gives incumbent Cindy Hyde-Smith a 91% chance of victory.  Hyde-Smith beat Espy in a 2018 special election by more than 7 points.

Six other states lean likely Republican:

1. Texas - Military veteran and teach Mary Jane Hegar hoped to give incumbent John Cornyn a run for his money in Texas as Cornyn seeks his fourth term.  Attacks on Cornyn's support for conservative judicial nominees have not had an impact in this red state. 538 gives Cornyn an 86% chance of victory.
2. Alaska - This remains a solidly red state.  Democrats could not even find an opponent to take on incumbent Daniel Sullivan.  Independent Candidate Al Gross has taken the Demoratic support in the State.  Even so, 538 gives Sullivan an 80% chance of reelection.
3. Kansas - Sen. Pat Roberts' decision to step down left an open seat in this red state.  Roger Marshall is expected to beat Barbara Bollier, given a chance of 73% by 538.
4. South Carolina - Democrats have smelled blood in the water, going after three term Senator Lindsey Graham.  Jamie Harrison has put up a well funded challenge in this red state.  538 gives Graham a 78% chance of reelection, while polls show Graham with a six point lead.
5. Georgia - Republican incumbent Sonny Purdue gets a 72% chance of reelection as Democrats focus on the other seat in that state (more on that later).
6. Alabama - Democrat Doug Jones won a surprise victory in a 2017 special election after his opponent was accused of sexual assault against several women, including minors.  This year, with Jones facing a non-child molester opponent in Republican Tommy Tuberville, Republicans expect to take back this seat in a very red state.  538 gives Tuberville a 72% chance of victory.

Democratic Safe Seats

Democrats expect almost certain wins in three states: New Hampshire (Jeanne Shaheen), Minnesota (Tina Smith), and New Mexico (Ben Ray Lujan).  None of these blue states in a blue year show any sign of changing.

There remain four other seats that are likely Democrat wins:

1. Colorado - In a strong year for Republicans, Cory Gardner narrowly defeated incumbent Mark Udall. As he seeks reelection in a blue state in a blue year, he faces popular former Democratic Governor John Hickenlooper, who has a double digit lead in most polls.  538 gives Hickenlooper an 80% chance of victory.
2. Arizona - In 2018, Martha McSally ran for the Senate seat in Arizona, and lost.  Then, Sen. John McCain died, and after a short interim period by John Kyle, the Republican Governor appointed McSally to the Senate in 2019.  She faces a challenge from astronaut Mark Kelly.  538 gives Kelly a 79% chance of victory.
3. Michigan  - First term incumbent Gary Peters has seen some weakness in this traditionally blue state.  Challenger John James has shown a surprising strength but remains consistently behind int he polls.  Peters is not expected to do as well as Biden does at the top of the ticket, but still gets a 79% chance of victory from 538.
4. Maine - In a traditionally blue state, Republican incumbent Susan Collins has won four Senate elections as a moderate, six years ago with nearly 70% of the vote.  However, Collins' support for Trump has cost her politically among Maine voters.  Opposition to impeachment and support for Supreme Court Justice Kavanaugh have greatly diminished her support in the state.  Speaker of the Maine House Sara Gideon has a 63% chance of victory according to 538.

Toss-up Seats

If all the likely elections go as expected the Democrats will hold 49 seats to 47 for the Republicans.  Four toss up states will decide the majority.  If the Democrats win the White House, a victory in any one of  these toss up states will give them control of the Senate.

Georgia: The wildest election of these four is the seat in Georgia.  While this is traditionally a red state, Biden is slightly ahead in most state polls. Johnny Isaakson resigned the seat in 2019, citing health reasons.  The Republican governor appointed Kelly Loeffler, who almost immediately faced opposition from fellow Republican Doug Collins.  This has made the election a three way race between the two Republicans and Democratic candidate Raphael Warnock.  If no candidate gets 50%, there will be a runoff election in January.

Current polls give Warnock about 31% of the vote, with incumbent Loeffler 23% and fellow Republican Collins 21%. Two other democratic candidates take another 8% combined, plus nearly 2% for the Libertarian candidate.  Almost certainly Warnock will be in the runoff election.  He will likely face Loeffler but no one has counted out Collins yet.  Regardless of which Republican goes to the runoff, 538 predicts a 51% chance of that candidate winning the runoff.

Iowa: Incumbent Republican Senator Joni Ernst was not favored to win in 2014 when she entered the competition for an open seat.  Her effective attacks on President Obama and considerable outside funding propelled her to an eight point victory in a strong year for Republicans.  Since Trump's election, the State had favored Democrats making the challenge from Theresa Greenfield a close one.

Both major parties have targeted this election and have spent record amounts in the state. In September, Ernst held pretty solid lead over her opponent. That lead slowly eroded until tracking polls gave Greenfield the edge on Oct. 7.  Currently, polling gives Greenfield an edge of about 0.5% over the incumbent.  538 gives Greenfield a 52% chance of victory.  

North Carolina: This traditionally Republican State has moved to the left in recent elections.  Incumbent Thom Tillis took office in 2014 barely winning in a strong year for Republicans.  Democrats have targeted this race with a strong chance of flipping it.  Challenger Cal Cunningham was recruited because his moderate profile and military background would appeal to North Carolina voters.  His wealth also ensured his campaign would be well funded.

Cunningham's lead in the polls took a hit in early October, when it was revealed that he had an affair with a female consultant on his campaign.  Around the same time, Tillis came down with Covid, which has prevented him from campaigning.  With these October surprises the result remains up in the air. Cunningham remains ahead in the polls by about 3%, and 538 gives him a 66% chance of victory.

Montana: Incumbent Steve Daines won in this red state in a strong Republican year of 2014, and after the Democratic candidate had to withdraw from the race less than 60 days before the election.  Daines' fairly solid conservative voting record made his chances of reelection good, until the popular Democratic Governor Steve Bullock opted to run against him.

While the race has been fairly tight, Daines maintains a roughly 3% edge over Bullock in most polls.  538 gives Daines a 68% chance of victory.

What to Watch on Election Night

Georgia will almost certainly be a runoff, and therefore inconclusive.  A Senate win in any one of three states: North Carolina, Iowa, or Montana will indicate likely Democratic control of the Senate in 2021.  

2020 Elections Two Weeks Out

Polls remain relatively unchanged from last week.  Biden remains the favorite with an estimated 87% chance of victory in the general election.  The last major event of the campaign, the final debate, is still scheduled for this week.

Biden supporters seem optimistic.  There have been no real game changing October surprises this year.  The biggest surprise was probably Trump and much of his top administration contracting Covid-19.  This put attention back on the pandemic at a time when infection rates nationally seem to be on the rise again. This works against Trump, who wants to focus on other issues and his claim that a vaccine is just around the corner. 

Trump's other hope for the election was his claim of credit for the economy.  With record unemployment continuing and other sagging indicators, Trump has focused on the fact that the stock market has retained its value.  Even so, with layoffs increasing after federal restrictions ended on October 1, and the failure of the federal government to pay for a second round of relief, it is not clear how much longer the economy can sustain even at current levels, or whether there will be a market crash.

Trump supporters, however, remain hopeful.  They point to 2016 polls that showed Trump behind Clinton until election day.  Republicans have argued that the polls are biased or simply wrong becaue many Trump supporters are skeptical of participating in them.

Pollsters have adjusted polling this year with an expectation of higher turnout of people with less than a college degree.  Higher turnout of this group in 2016 is largely believed to account for Trump's win.  However, even if Trump support does turn out a few points higher than polls expect, Biden's lead could still withstand that.

Trump Path to Victory

If Trump can win every state where Biden polls under 50% (in other words Trump wins 100% of undecideds, which are as much as 10% in some States) he has a path to victory, as seen in this map.

In this scenario, Trump wins every state he won in 2016, except for Michigan and Wisconsin.  He picks up Nevada, which he lost by the tightest of margins in 2016.

Narrow wins in Wisconsin and Michigan were key to Trumps 2016 win.  Polling shows Biden up by over 6% in both states, with Biden at 50% and Trump at 43% in both.  Those seem like unsurmountable hurdles at this point.

Key States

Is this Trump-win scenario realistic? I doubt it.  To see why, let's look at the ten closest states as indicated by 2070toWin reported polling averages: Georgia, Iowa, Ohio, Florida, Arizona, North Carolina, Texas, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Alaska.  In the above map, most of those states are must-wins for Trump (he could lose one or two of the smaller states like Iowa or Nevada).  Polling shows Biden ahead in seven of them.  These include the "Trump must win" states of North Carolina, Florida, Georgia, and Pennsylvania.

Pennsylvania may be the hardest state on this list for Trump to win.  Biden's polling lead has gone down slightly from about 6% to just under 5% in the past week.  Even so, most experts give Pennsylvania to Biden, even though Trump won there in 2016.  Every single poll reported on 270towin shows a Biden victory there, between 3% and 11%.  The consensus shows Biden at 49%, Trump 44% with 7% other/undecided.  Nevada looks similarly insurmountable with Biden winning every poll in that state by 2%-14%.  Consensus polls give Biden 48% to Trump's 42%, with 10% other/undecided. Arizona, likewise gives Biden a 3% edge Biden 49% to Trump 46% with Biden winning 9 out of 10 polls.

Florida and Georgia are generally considered toss-ups.  Consensus polls put Biden ahead by less than 1% in Georgia.  Traditional voter suppression tactics for black voters in Georgia will probably be effective in keeping that state red.  Similarly, Florida Republicans have been pretty effective in nullifying a State referendum to restore voting rights to ex-felons.  This could have led to several hundred thousand more Democratic votes in this notoriously close state.  Republican efforts to suppress these votes have kept Florida within the margin of error. Consensus polling shows Biden 49%, Trump 47%, with 4% other/undecided.

Even if Trump wins Florida, Georgia, and a few other states where Biden has an edge, the path to victory is a difficult and narrow one for Trump.  The consensus map gives Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Nevada to Biden, which would assure him of victory.  Trump can win all the tossup states on this map and still lose the election.

October Surprise

Trump, therefore, must hope for an event that shakes up the election and changes voter minds.  In 2016, this happened in the days before the election when the Justice Department announced it would reopen an investigation into Hillary Clinton's emails.

Recently, the Trump Justice Department announce a new 2020 investigation into Hillary Clinton's emails.  This stunts seems laughably pathetic given that there is no new evidence of anything four years later, and it is unclear why voters would hold such an investigation of Clinton emails against Biden, as opposed to holding it against Clinton in 2016.

 In 2016, much of the attacks on Hillary Clinton, came from a concerted misinformation campaign run from Russia.  There are questions about whether Russia may attempt a similar last minute surprise i 2020.  There were reports earlier this year that Russian Hackers took emails from the Ukrainian gas company Burisma, which the Trump administration has accused of engaging in corruption involving Biden's son Hunter.  It is possible that Russia could release emails, intermingled with fraudulent emails that it has fabricated, in order to attack Biden.  Russia engaged in similar tactics during earlier European elections.

If there is still an October Surprise, it will be... well... a surprise.  In order to have its full effect, one would expect it to be released this week, just before the last Presidential debate.  That timing would provide maximum impact.

Absent some event that can alter voters by at least 5%.  It appears that Biden will be the President in 2021.

2020 elections - three weeks out.

 Four years ago, I found it inconceivable that Trump would win the presidency.  Much of that was focused on Clinton winning Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, which had been solidly Democratic for the prior twenty years.  

Trump's ability to make those inroads, along with capturing Florida, gave him the path to victory.  In 2016, many pollsters undercounted the enthusiasm of Trump voters, leading to heavier Republican turnout, and the real lack of enthusiasm among potential Clinton voters.  There was a marked drop off in minority democratic votes, not surprising given the record turnouts that Obama motivated.

This year, 2020, once again seems poised for a Democratic win.  Based on polling three weeks before the election, we see a prediction for a Biden landslide.

In this scenario, Trump loses Florida, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania - all states that he carried in 2016.  This map, I think, is the best case scenario for the Democrats in 2020.

There is an expectation that Trump supporters will once again exceed polling expectations.  There is an undercount, perhaps due to many Trump supporters not participating honestly in polls.  There is also the repeated risk of undercounting pro-Trump turnout due to Trump enthusiasm.

That said, at the risk of being wrong again, I don't think that will be as stark in 2020.  While Biden supporters are not particularly enthusiastic for Biden, they do not have the same level of hostility as they did to the Clinton campaign in 2016. Many liberal voters also regret sitting out 2016 and are not willing to make that mistake again.

Even with a bump for Trump enthusiasm, it is heard to see a path to Trump victory.  A map giving Trump every state where consensus polls show him within 5% of Biden still give a slim electoral victory to Biden.

In this scenario, Biden wins back the critical states of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, while holding on to every state that Clinton won.  If Trump cannot turn around a 6% or 7% polling deficit in those three states, it is difficult to imagine a path to reelection.