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Sunday, May 1, 2016

Indiana Primary

Indiana gets is moment of attention this week as candidates head into the Primary on May 3.  Indiana is an interesting State.  It has always been much more conservative than the rest of the mid-west.  Unlike its neighbors, Indiana received its original population from the south, as they moved up the Ohio River.


Pundits have proclaimed Indiana a "must win" for Ted Cruz.  With the last half dozen primaries in States were Cruz was never expected to do well, the highly conservative and deeply Republican Indiana should be fertile territory for Cruz.  Even John Kasich has agreed not to campaign there, in order to give Cruz a better shot at this winner take all State with 57 delegates.

That said, Donald Trump consistently beats Cruz in most polls, though usually by single digits. Indiana has a open Primary, meaning independents can vote.  This tends to favor Trump over Cruz.

With every delegate at issue, Indiana provides another opportunity either for Trump to continue the line that he is inevitable at this point, or for Cruz to show there is still strong opposition to the party's front runner.  Although the polls still favor Trump, I think Cruz has a good chance here.  If he cannot win in Indiana, the rest of the primary calendar looks much harder for him.  I'm going to go out on a limb and say Cruz pulls off a surprise win in Indiana.


Hillary Clinton also maintains a single digit lead in most polls.  Indiana does not have a large number of minorities, who tend to favor Clinton over Sanders.  But its Democrats tend to be more moderate than the typical Sanders supporter.  Clinton should eke out a win here.

In then end though, because Democrats have a proportional award of the 92 delegates available,  a win by a few points by one or the other candidate really matters little.  I would only affect a small number of delegates awarded.  Because Sanders needs overwhelming victories in every single remaining contest, even a close win here only reduces Sanders' already minute chance of victory at the Convention.  That said, he will likely not even get that.  Expect a Clinton victory.

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