With the vote counting now nearly complete, the press has called Pennsylvania for Biden. This gives him sufficient electoral votes to win the presidency. If the current counts prove correct, Biden will have flipped all three critical midwestern states that traditionally go Democrat but which Trump took in 2016: Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. (ok, traditionally Pennsylvania is not considered "midwest" but for purposes of voter sentiment in this election, it is). Biden also flipped Arizona and eked out the narrowest of victories in Georgia.
Trump has refused to concede, citing claims of voter fraud or other voting irregularities. Several critical states were won very narrowly. At current count Biden has won the following states by narrow margins.
- Georgia, 10,000 (0.2%)
- Pennsylvania, 37000 (0.5%)
- Arizona, 19,000 (0.6%)
- Wisconsin, 20,000 (0.6%)
- Nevada, 27,000 (2.1%)
- Michigan 148,000 (2.7%)
Trump would have to win challenges in at least three of these states in order to win the electoral college. Wisconsin, for example allows for a recount request if the margin is under 1%. However, the challenging campaign has to pay for the recount if the margin is above 0.25%. The Trump campaign is trying to raise funds from supporters for this purpose. In 2016, Green party candidate demanded a recount in Wisconsin, which changed the vote total by only 136 votes. In other words, the odds of finding thousands of incorrect votes in order to change the outcome, and achieving that in three different states is a virtually impossible effort.
Trump is also trying to challenge votes in some states, attempting to have votes thrown out by the courts. For example, some states extended deadlines for the receipt of mail in ballots in response to accusations that the post office was not delivering those ballots before the deadline. Other states made changes to voting procedures to allow for absentee voting that deviated from state law requirements, in order to accommodate health concerns of voters and poll workers.
It is conceivable that a court could throw out sufficient votes to alter the results. However, courts typically do not overrule state decision not to disenfranchise voters for technical ballot or timing issues unless there is proof that the legal deviation were intentionally designed to benefit one candidate over another. There does not appear to be any evidence of such activity in this election.
The likely outcome of all of these court cases and recount challenges is that there will be no change in the current results. The president may complain and his supporters may protest in the streets, but any actual change from these efforts seems rather far fetched.
Perhaps a partisan governor might opt to push through an electoral slate from the losing side based on claims of fraud, even if baseless. Such a maneuver would probably require a Republican governor and Republican majorities in the state legislature. Only Arizona and Georgia fall into that category. Wisconsin Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Nevada all have Democratic governors. Therefore, even such an extraordinary change in Arizona and Georgia would not give Trump enough electoral votes to remain in office.
Because Biden appears to have a solid three state lead in the electoral college, and because the winning margin in all of the closest states is in the tens of thousands of votes, Biden's victory seems secure.
Incidentally, as a follow up to my voting predictions the week before the election, with Georgia and Pennsylvania having flipped in late vote counting. My predictions were correct in 48 States. Only Florida and North Carolina went for Trump when I predicted Biden victories.
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