Sanders Surge

Bernie Sanders had a good weekend in the Alaska, Hawaii, and Washington State Caucuses.  He beat Hillary Clinton with over 70% of the vote in all three States.  As things stand, Sanders needs to win 2/3 of the remaining delegates.  He won more than that share yesterday.  While exact delegate counts are still being sorted,  Sanders probably won around 120 delegates to Clinton's 50.

Sanders has always done better in closed caucuses, where independents cannot vote and where participation typically takes a commitment of several hours. As a result, voters tend to be more hard core and hold more extreme views than the public in general.  Still, victories of 70% or 80% are very impressive.

The wins were more than enough to keep the Sanders Campaign going, with an infusion of money and support.

The next contest is an open primary in Wisconsin in about a week and a half. Clinton and Sanders are virtually tied there in the polls. But after Wisconsin comes a number of mid-Atlantic States, including Pennsylvania and New York, where Clinton has roughly 30 point leads in the polls.  If Clinton does as well as the polls suggests, even Sanders' landslide victories in these smaller caucuses will not be enough allow hit to catch Clinton in delegates.

Sanders could possibly continue to win the remaining States without the necessary margins to catch Clinton, but because he had so many wins, many Superdelegates who have pledged support to Clinton could switch there votes.  Superdelegates do not want to be in the uncomfortable position of nominating a candidate who does not win the most delegates in the primaries.  Still, that remains a long shot strategy for Sanders as well.

Sanders has momentum after yesterday's wins.  But keeping up that pace in the States ahead does not seem likely given the polling in those States.

Primary Lull

After the frenzy of primaries in March, ending with the March 22 contests in Arizona and Utah, the Republicans take a two week break, the next contest being the Wisconsin Primary on April 5.  That may be Kasich's last stand.  If he loses to Trump there, as polls predict, he has little credibility going forward.  With continuing third place standing in the polls of other upcoming contests, many in winner take all States, Kasich moves into the joke category.  Maybe Kasich can turn things around in the next two weeks if voters tend to drift from Trump, but right now he looks like a dead man walking.

Cruz will be happy to see Kasich go, making this a two man race against Trump.  Unfortunately, most of the remaining States will be hard for him to win.  Most of the remaining delegates come from the Mid-Atlantic, New England and West Coast States.  These more moderate voters without strong partisan ties are not likely Cruz fans.  Trump may defeat him in these states even on a two mar race.

On the Democratic side, Sanders may be in for a bit of a wild ride.  He won the two caucuses on March 22 (Idaho and Utah) but lost the bigger primary in Arizona.  Still, it shows he can win States by large percentages.  Sanders does especially well in closed caucuses, as we say in Idaho and Utah.  Up next on the calendar are three more closed caucuses on March 26, Alaska, Hawaii, and the big one in Washington State.  If Sanders can pick up all three of those, and there is a good chance that he can, he may pick up momentum for the mid-Atlantic States that follow later in April, closing in on Clinton's substantial lead.  If that happened, and Sanders passed Clinton in pledged delegates, you could see many of Clinton's super delegates also jump ship and move to the more popular candidate, as they did to her with Obama in 2008.

It is interesting that at this point in the process, neither party seems to have a consensus candidate. Both parties seem deeply divided with both front runners holding extremely high negative ratings. Whoever wins in November may face a deeply divided nation to lead.

Tuesday March 8 results

There were six contests yesterday.  Democrats and Republicans both held primaries in Michigan and Mississippi.  Republicans also held contests in Hawaii and Idaho.  All eyes have been on Michigan, where Kasich was hoping for something to carry him into Ohio next week.  On the Democratic side, it is the first major contest outside the south with a large black population.

Republicans:

Once again, Trump emerged victorious with the most delegates.

• Michigan Primary (59 delegates): Trump dominated the night with a 36.5% victory in the largest state, collecting 25 delegates.  Cruz and Kasich were in a virtual tie for second place, Cruz edging out Kasich with 24.9% to 24.3%.  Both took home 14 delegates.  Rubio failed to meet the threshold and got zero delegates.
• Mississippi Primary  (40 delegates): Trump did even better in Mississippi with 47.3% earning him 24 delegates.  Cruz finished second with 36.3% and 13 delegates.  Kasich and Rubio failed to meet the threshold and got zero.
• Idaho Primary (32 delegates): Cruz takes his one victory for the night in this highly conservative State with a closed primary, winning 45.4% and taking 14 delegates.  Trump finished second with 28.1% for 10 delegates.  Rubio and Kasich failed to meet the threshold and got zero delegates.
• Hawaii Caucus (19 delegates); Trump wins with 42.4%, followed by Cruz with 32.7%, Rubio with 13.1% and Kasich with 10.6%.  Hawaii has not yet released results on who will get how many delegates.

Trump continues to widen his lead.  Kasich and Rubio both had disappointing nights.  Both will probably hold their campaigns open for another week when their respective home states of Ohio and Florida vote.  If, however, Trump defeats them at home, they will almost certainly end their campaigns.   Cruz seems to remain the only viable Trump alternative and even that is a big long shot. There are many large moderate winner take all primaries coming up, the type where Cruz has failed to win.  Absent some game changing event, Trump's nomination seems more and more certain.

Democrats:

Clinton continues to leave Sanders in her dust, extending her already wide lead.

• Michigan (148 delegates): Sanders (49.9%) won a surprise victory over Clinton (48.2%) in a close vote.  It is a testament to the Sanders GOTV (get out the vote) work and good ground organization.  Beating Clinton in a non-New England State with a significant minority population is a new feat for Sanders.  As a result, he gets 65 delegates to Clinton's 58.
• Mississippi (41 delegates): Clinton won an unsurprising decisive victory in this southern State with a large African American voting base.  Clinton won a dominant 82.6% of the vote to Sanders' 16.6%.   Clinton took 29 delegates while Sanders won 4.

Analysis:

While others remain in the game as long shot candidates, Trump and Clinton have a clear path to their party nominations.  Unless something big changes in the later states, the pattern of victory seems in place.  All candidates continue to fight on toward major contests next Tuesday, which may further winnow the Republican field.

Delegate Count:

Republican:
(1,237 Needed to Win) 

Trump - 458
Cruz - 359
Rubio - 151
Kasich - 54
Carson - 8


Total delegates available in future contests - 1435.

Democrat: 
(2,382 Needed to Win)

Clinton - 745 + 461 super
Sanders - 540 + 25 super

Total delegates available in future contests - 2973

* Super delegates are permitted to change commitments at any time up to the Convention.  Therefore, they may not be as reliable as committed delegates won in primaries.