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Wednesday, March 9, 2016

Tuesday March 8 results

There were six contests yesterday.  Democrats and Republicans both held primaries in Michigan and Mississippi.  Republicans also held contests in Hawaii and Idaho.  All eyes have been on Michigan, where Kasich was hoping for something to carry him into Ohio next week.  On the Democratic side, it is the first major contest outside the south with a large black population.

Republicans:

Once again, Trump emerged victorious with the most delegates.

  • Michigan Primary (59 delegates): Trump dominated the night with a 36.5% victory in the largest state, collecting 25 delegates.  Cruz and Kasich were in a virtual tie for second place, Cruz edging out Kasich with 24.9% to 24.3%.  Both took home 14 delegates.  Rubio failed to meet the threshold and got zero delegates.
  • Mississippi Primary  (40 delegates): Trump did even better in Mississippi with 47.3% earning him 24 delegates.  Cruz finished second with 36.3% and 13 delegates.  Kasich and Rubio failed to meet the threshold and got zero.
  • Idaho Primary (32 delegates): Cruz takes his one victory for the night in this highly conservative State with a closed primary, winning 45.4% and taking 14 delegates.  Trump finished second with 28.1% for 10 delegates.  Rubio and Kasich failed to meet the threshold and got zero delegates.
  • Hawaii Caucus (19 delegates); Trump wins with 42.4%, followed by Cruz with 32.7%, Rubio with 13.1% and Kasich with 10.6%.  Hawaii has not yet released results on who will get how many delegates.
Trump continues to widen his lead.  Kasich and Rubio both had disappointing nights.  Both will probably hold their campaigns open for another week when their respective home states of Ohio and Florida vote.  If, however, Trump defeats them at home, they will almost certainly end their campaigns.   Cruz seems to remain the only viable Trump alternative and even that is a big long shot. There are many large moderate winner take all primaries coming up, the type where Cruz has failed to win.  Absent some game changing event, Trump's nomination seems more and more certain.
Democrats:

Clinton continues to leave Sanders in her dust, extending her already wide lead.
  • Michigan (148 delegates): Sanders (49.9%) won a surprise victory over Clinton (48.2%) in a close vote.  It is a testament to the Sanders GOTV (get out the vote) work and good ground organization.  Beating Clinton in a non-New England State with a significant minority population is a new feat for Sanders.  As a result, he gets 65 delegates to Clinton's 58.
  • Mississippi (41 delegates): Clinton won an unsurprising decisive victory in this southern State with a large African American voting base.  Clinton won a dominant 82.6% of the vote to Sanders' 16.6%.   Clinton took 29 delegates while Sanders won 4.
Analysis:

While others remain in the game as long shot candidates, Trump and Clinton have a clear path to their party nominations.  Unless something big changes in the later states, the pattern of victory seems in place.  All candidates continue to fight on toward major contests next Tuesday, which may further winnow the Republican field.

Delegate Count:

Republican:
(1,237 Needed to Win) 

Trump - 458
Cruz - 359
Rubio - 151
Kasich - 54
Carson - 8


Total delegates available in future contests - 1435.

Democrat: 
(2,382 Needed to Win)

Clinton - 745 + 461 super
Sanders - 540 + 25 super

Total delegates available in future contests - 2973

* Super delegates are permitted to change commitments at any time up to the Convention.  Therefore, they may not be as reliable as committed delegates won in primaries.

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