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Monday, March 7, 2016

Sunday March 6 Results

Two contests on Sunday finished off an interesting weekend.

The Democrats had their Democratic Caucus.  Sanders beat Clinton by 65% to 35%.  It adds to Sanders' successes in Kansas and Nebraska, but still leaves Clinton with more delegates this weekend after her big victory in Louisiana.

Maine gives continued hope to Sanders supporters that he can continue to chip away and Clinton's lead.  If he can carry the momentum into larger States this Tuesday, it is possible we could see a real match.  But Clinton is favored in both Michigan and Mississippi on Tuesday, which should allow her to pull further away from Sanders.  Clinton is expected to win by 20 points in Michigan and 40 points in Mississippi.  If those predictions come true, Sanders' path to the nomination looks bleak indeed.

Rubio scored his second big win this campaign season with an impressive and overwhelming victory in Puerto Rico, winning all 23 delegates with more than 70% of the vote. Rubio was the only candidate who bothered to campaign on the island, with the others focused more on larger State contests approaching over the next few days.

Rubio's win cuts into Cruz's call to become the sole Trump alternative in the race.  It also takes away from Kasich's attempt to displace Rubio as the Establishment choice against the top two: Trump and Cruz.  Perhaps Trump is the real winner as each of the three opponents divide the anti-Trump opposition.

On Tuesday, Trump is favored in the polls in both Michigan and Mississipi. However, Kasich hopes to do well in Michigan, better than the polls suggest.  If he can, win or at least take a strong second,  he can perhaps carry that momentum into his home State of Ohio for his first State win.  If not, he will likely fold his campaign.  Mississippi could possibly be a place for Cruz to shine, although a second place finish to Trump is most likely.  Idaho and Hawaii also have primaries on Tuesday, but no public polling is available.  Most people will be watching Michigan as the most important contest of the day.

1 comment:

  1. It's over: Clinton vs. either Trump or (possibly) Cruz. Rubio is still dead man walking.