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Thursday, March 10, 2016

Saturday March 12 Contests

This Saturday, there will be a few minor contests that will go largely unnoticed.  They will only deliver a handful of delegates.

DC Republicans will hold their caucus this Saturday, March 12.  They can probably meet around a table in a Georgetown restaurant, and not even have push several together.  Seriously, this is a small group.  DC is only about 6% Republican.  It has never elected a Republican to district wide office and is one of only two jurisdictions to vote for a Democratic President in the 1984 Reagan landslide.  Nevertheless, they will award 19 delegates to attend the Republican convention, making them the biggest contest on Saturday.

Guam will hold its Republican convention on Saturday March 12 where it will select nine delegates. These delegates will be unbound, meaning they can vote for whomever they like at the national convention. Therefore, anything decided on Saturday will not have any impact on the race for now.

Democrats will also be active with their Northern Marianas Caucus on Saturday, awarding a whopping 11 to the Democratic Convention.

I have not seen any polling for any of these jurisdictions.  DC is decidedly establishment and will likely oppose Trump.  Cruz may find a win in DC, but this is really just a guess absent any polling. Since Guam does not bind its delegates, any results released are largely irrelevant to the ongoing delegate fight.   Northern Marianas has already had one super delegate pledge to Clinton, so perhaps that is an indication of Clinton popularity on the islands.

Candidates, however, are largely ignoring these minor contests and looking toward the much larger ones next Tuesday.  I plan to discuss those much more important events in tomorrow's post.

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