Super Tuesday is over. Trump and Clinton are the big winners. With the Super Tuesday results, it seems unlikely that any of their opponents will be able to catch them. There remains, however, enough of a slim hope to keep fighting.
At this point in the election season, percentage of vote won becomes less important than the number of delegates obtained. In the early contests, we pay closer attention to percentages because they may be some indication of how candidates may do in future contests. It helps us pick the front runners. By now, over a quarter of the States have voted. Predictions of future support give way to actual support being achieved: that is how many delegates will vote for a nominee at the convention. Ultimately, that is what matters.
Republican Results
Donald Trump won Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Massachusetts, Tennessee, Vermont, and Virginia, collecting a total of 203 delegates. Trump failed to achieve 50% in any State but did come in second in every State he did not win, except for one third place finish in Minnesota.
Ted Cruz had the second best night, winning his home State of Texas, as well as Oklahoma and Alaska. He picked up 144 delegates giving him the "Trump alternative" mantel.
Marco Rubio had a particularly disappointing night. Establishment Republicans have been trying to make him the Trump alternative. The voters, however, gave Rubio only a single win in Minnesota. Rubio often failed to make 20% in many states, which is often the threshold to be granted any delegates at all. As a result, Rubio garnered only 71 delegates last night.
John Kasich and Ben Carson failed to win anywhere, only breaking double digits in two States each. Kasich won 19 delegates and Carson 3.
Republican establishment is now running scared. Trump has a clear path to the nomination with only Cruz appearing as a viable alternative. Cruz is presenting himself as such in speeches and calling on the other candidates to end their campaigns so that the anti-Trump voters can move to him. The problem is that the establishment does not like Cruz either. His few years in the Senate has caused most of his colleague to find him disagreeable and unlikable. They don't think they can work with him as President any more than they could with Trump. As a result, it is unlikely Cruz could get the full anti-Trump coalition behind him.
It's also interesting that the only two States that Cruz won outside of his home state were both closed caucuses, meaning independents could not vote in them. Trump seems more popular with independents than with Republicans. Many Republicans may decide that Trump has a better chance of beating Clinton in the general election based on his appeal with independents. Therefore, I still don't see a Cruz bandwagon.
Rubio may continue in hopes that there is some major stumble and realignment, but is looking more like a dead man walking. Perhaps Minnesota gives him hope that he could win elsewhere, but it is not looking likely. If Trump beats Rubio in his home State of Florida in two weeks, as expected, it is hard to see how Rubio can remain in the race.
Kasich and Carson should go. Kasich has wanted to hold out until Michigan later this week and Ohio in two weeks, but is going to get heavy pressure to quit now so his supporters can move to Rubio. Right now Kasich is polling a pathetic third place in Michigan with about 12% support, not even enough to collect a delegate. He is also polling second behind Trump in his home State of Ohio, a winner take all state on March 15. In other words, his best hope of denying a Trump victory in Ohio is to drop out and hope his supporters go to one of the other anti-Trump candidates. I expect Kasich to drop out in the next few days, possibly waiting for his loss in Michigan on March 8 to make it official.
Carson remains fairly irrelevant due to low numbers, but his supporters may go to Trump if he leaves. Carson has made few rational decisions during the campaign, so when he finally drops out seems to be unrelated to his continuing defeats in the polls.
Remember that beginning on March 15, Republican contests become winner take all. If last night had been a winner take all night, Trump would have won 331 delegates rather than 203. Absent a single unifying anti-Trump candidate, Trump will win the nomination as his path gets much easier under winner take all. There will be extreme pressure on many of the remaining four alternative candidates to drop out and make it a two person race. Even so, no one seems ready to blink.
Democratic Results
As expected, Hillary Clinton did very well yesterday. She took the whole south, winning Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Tennessee, Texas, and Virginia, all by more than 30 points over Bernie Sanders. She also won a close victory in Massachusetts, which should have been a strong State for Sanders if he really expects to win the nomination.
Sanders did well though, better than I expected. He won not only his home State of Vermont, but also in Colorado, Minnesota, and Oklahoma. But in the delegate count, Sanders continued to fall well behind. winning 284 delegates to Clinton's 453.
Repeatedly finishing a distant second in a two person race is not a path to victory. Compare this to 2008 when Obama just barely beat Clinton on Super Tuesday, winning 13 States to Clinton's 10 (Super Tuesday was a little more super then). Obama also won a few more delegates than Clinton, although Clinton won a majority of the total popular vote. In short it was considered a virtual tie and both candidates went on to fight another day.
By contrast, Sanders lost most of the States and collected only about a third of the available delegates. Outside of his home state though, Sanders victories came in Caucus States (Col. & Okla.) where candidates appealing to smaller but more dedicated voters tend to win. His other win (Minn) came in a closed primary where Independents could not vote. Again, this tends to benefit more extreme candidates who may not do as well in a general election. Sanders supporters may find solace in the fact that Sanders did fairly well in non-southern States and that going forward, most of the south is now behind us. If Sanders can do well to win in the mid-west and far west, he could possibly pull a come from behind victory. But he will need to win some open primaries outside of New England. In short, Sanders did well enough to continue his race, but he remains a clear underdog.
Showing posts with label Super Tuesday analysis. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Super Tuesday analysis. Show all posts
Wednesday, March 2, 2016
Monday, February 29, 2016
Super Tuesday
Super Tuesday is when the primary fighting gets serious. In the combined four early primaries and caucuses, there were 186 delegates up for grabs among the Democrats and 133 for the Republicans. On Super Tuesday, that one day will award 997 delegates for the Democrats and 665 for the Republicans
Super Tuesday started to become a thing in 1980, although there were some references to it dating from the 1976 campaign. After the primaries started to become important after the 1968 and 1972 Party reforms, States quickly realized that being early was especially important. By the time a quarter of the States had voted, a nominee was often pretty much selected or at least well on his way. Late primaries became virtually meaningless.
To prevent States from continually moving earlier and extending the primary season, parties began to put limits on how early a State could hold a primary or caucus. As a result, many States wanted to be at the very beginning of the party sanctioned time period. A number of southern States thought they could have more say if they all held their primaries on the same day, on the first Tuesday within the time permitted by the parties. That is how Super Tuesday was born.
Some people call Super Tuesday the SEC Primary because most of the southern states voting on that day are part of the SEC (Southeastern Conference) of college sports teams.
It is very unusual for there not to be a candidate who is going to be the clear winner after Super Tuesday. Under Republican rules, States holding primaries or caucuses prior to March 15 must award delegates on a proportional basis. This means that every candidate that meets a basic threshold will be awarded delegates, with the exact number dependent on the percentage of the vote won. So winners of early states often don't get many more delegates than the losers. After March 15, States move to a winner take all model. Winning a State by even one vote has big consequences for obtaining delegates. This allows a front runner to obtain a majority more quickly.
By contrast, the Democrats required awarding proportional delegates through the whole process, as long as a candidate meets a certain threshold, usually 15%. This tends to draw out the fight longer for the Democrats, as it did in 2008 when the delegates remained closely divided between Obama and Clinton until almost the very end of the season.
Below is a list of Super Tuesday Primaries and caucuses. An open primary is one where anyone from any party can vote in either primary. A closed primary is one where only registered members of a party can vote. Mixed usually means that independents can vote in either primary, but registered members of one party cannot vote in the other.
Clinton and Trump remain the respective favorites, although both seem to draw high negative numbers even within their own parties. Cruz remains a solid second even though, like Trump, he also tends to draw high negatives. Cruz may win his home State of Texas, which may keep his campaign alive for a while. Cruz's and Trump's high negatives mean few people opposing Trump or Cruz now will move to their camps as other candidates drop away.
Now that Jeb Bush is out, the question for many is where his voters go. Rubio seems to be the establishment favorite at the moment. However, a failure to win any Super Tuesday State may cause his "winnability" to be questioned, especially with polls showing him losing his home State of Florida to Trump two weeks later.
Super Tuesday started to become a thing in 1980, although there were some references to it dating from the 1976 campaign. After the primaries started to become important after the 1968 and 1972 Party reforms, States quickly realized that being early was especially important. By the time a quarter of the States had voted, a nominee was often pretty much selected or at least well on his way. Late primaries became virtually meaningless.
To prevent States from continually moving earlier and extending the primary season, parties began to put limits on how early a State could hold a primary or caucus. As a result, many States wanted to be at the very beginning of the party sanctioned time period. A number of southern States thought they could have more say if they all held their primaries on the same day, on the first Tuesday within the time permitted by the parties. That is how Super Tuesday was born.
Some people call Super Tuesday the SEC Primary because most of the southern states voting on that day are part of the SEC (Southeastern Conference) of college sports teams.
It is very unusual for there not to be a candidate who is going to be the clear winner after Super Tuesday. Under Republican rules, States holding primaries or caucuses prior to March 15 must award delegates on a proportional basis. This means that every candidate that meets a basic threshold will be awarded delegates, with the exact number dependent on the percentage of the vote won. So winners of early states often don't get many more delegates than the losers. After March 15, States move to a winner take all model. Winning a State by even one vote has big consequences for obtaining delegates. This allows a front runner to obtain a majority more quickly.
By contrast, the Democrats required awarding proportional delegates through the whole process, as long as a candidate meets a certain threshold, usually 15%. This tends to draw out the fight longer for the Democrats, as it did in 2008 when the delegates remained closely divided between Obama and Clinton until almost the very end of the season.
Below is a list of Super Tuesday Primaries and caucuses. An open primary is one where anyone from any party can vote in either primary. A closed primary is one where only registered members of a party can vote. Mixed usually means that independents can vote in either primary, but registered members of one party cannot vote in the other.
- Alabama 60 D, 50 R Open
- Alaska caucus (R) 28 Closed
- American Samoa caucus (D) 10 Open
- Arkansas 37 D, 40 R Open
- Colorado caucus 79 D, 37 R Closed
- Democrats Abroad (Vote March 1 - 8) 17
- Georgia 116 D, 76 R Open
- Massachusetts 116 D, 42 R Mixed
- Minnesota caucus 93 D, 38 R Open
- North Dakota caucus (R) 28 Closed
- Oklahoma 42 D, 43 R Closed
- Tennessee 76 D, 58 R Open
- Texas 252 D, 155 R Open
- Vermont 26 D, 16 R Open
- Virginia 110 D, 49 R Open
- Wyoming caucus (R) 29 Closed
As much as my readers enjoy me going on interminably about the details, I'm not going to handicap each individual State race this time. I will say that the majority of votes tend to be in southern States, which usually tends to benefit conservative candidates in both parties. Because Super Tuesday is such a large and disparate grouping, it tends to benefit the more well financed and organized campaigns. The retail politics that work in small early states does not translate well into a larger race. TV and other advertising becomes more important, as does free mass media from debates and news pieces.
Clinton and Trump remain the respective favorites, although both seem to draw high negative numbers even within their own parties. Cruz remains a solid second even though, like Trump, he also tends to draw high negatives. Cruz may win his home State of Texas, which may keep his campaign alive for a while. Cruz's and Trump's high negatives mean few people opposing Trump or Cruz now will move to their camps as other candidates drop away.
Now that Jeb Bush is out, the question for many is where his voters go. Rubio seems to be the establishment favorite at the moment. However, a failure to win any Super Tuesday State may cause his "winnability" to be questioned, especially with polls showing him losing his home State of Florida to Trump two weeks later.
Kasich's strategy becomes more difficult as he tends to do worse in Southern Primaries. If Kasich does not win or at least beat Rubio in some of the non-Southern States (Col. Mass. Minn. N.D., Ver.) he will have to call it quits. Even if he wins a couple of Stats, at best, he is a long shot compromise candidate at a divided convetion, very unlikely,
Carson also remains in the race but not sure why. His few supporters are the few that may move to Trump in significant numbers when his campaign ends.
For the Democrats, the two person race simplifies things. In 2008, Clinton and Obama split Super Tuesday pretty evenly. Sanders will need to win the States that rejected Clinton in 2008 in order to show he has staying power. I don't think that is realistic, meaning Super Tuesday may bring an end to the Sanders Campaign.
Carson also remains in the race but not sure why. His few supporters are the few that may move to Trump in significant numbers when his campaign ends.
For the Democrats, the two person race simplifies things. In 2008, Clinton and Obama split Super Tuesday pretty evenly. Sanders will need to win the States that rejected Clinton in 2008 in order to show he has staying power. I don't think that is realistic, meaning Super Tuesday may bring an end to the Sanders Campaign.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)