What a Biden Landslide Looks Like

With the Election only one week away, and with more than one-third of voters already having voted online, momentum seems clearly in Biden's favor. Focus on the Covid-19 epidemic has been unavoidable after the President and most of his staff came down with the illness. Undecideds appear to swing heavily toward Biden. 

 That said, Trump supporters seem more motivated and optimistic than ever. If the level of support in one's vote mattered, Trump would likley have a much better position. But the old one-person, one-vote standard leans in Biden's favor. Many voters who sat out 2016 because they were not crazy about either major party candidate seem to regret that decions and are voting in record numbers. In some states, early voting will surpass the total voting in that state four years earlier. Polling shows biden with solid leads int he key states of Wisconsin (6.8%) Michigan (7.0%) and Pennsylvania (7.2%). These three traditionally Democratic states gave Trump his victory in 2016. Without them, it is hard to see any possible path to a Trump victory. Overcoming a 2-3% polling deficit was possible in 2016. 

It's hard to see overcoming a 7% deficit, especially when high voter turnout benefits Biden. Rather, undecideds seem to be breaking toward Biden. The Biden campaign is pushing for some traditionally red states. Now, this is an old trick. Campaigning in some traditionally red states gets the media push the story line that the election will be a rout and that the campaign has already locked down the toss-ups. Hillary Clinton campaigned in Texas in October 2016 in an attempt to push this story. So, it's not always to be believed. 

The Biden campaign is campaigning in the traditionally red state of Texas, where the two most recent polls show a Biden Victory. The Morning Consult polls showed Trump leading in the state 49% to 47% on October 13. Just over a week later, on October 22, that same poll showed a 48%-47% Biden victory. Another 10/25 poll shows a 48% to 45% Biden victory. Overall the last ten polls going back a month still give Trump the edge at 1.6%. But if Texas is in contention, the election is already over. 

There are similar trends appearing in other must win states. In Georgia, the latest poll gives Biden a 47%-46% win in the State, even if the polling average still gives Trump a 1% edge. North Carolina polls show Biden wins in 8 out of 10 polls (one is a tie and one gives Trump a 1% edge). Florida shows the same results in Biden's favor. 

Only in the battleground states of Iowa and Ohio does Trump seem to be holding his own. The only state running clearly counter to this trend is Arizona, where a pretty consistent 5% Biden lead has disappeared in the two most recent polls. Arizona is a must-win for Trump but only a pile-on State for Biden. 

If Biden can manage to swing last minute undecideds in his favor, and pick up all states where polls show him within 2% of winning, the electoral map would look like this:  

That is 413 electoral votes to 125. We haven't seen a victory that lopsided since the first George Bush in in 1988.  A Democrat hasn't pulled that off since 1964.  If it's any consolation to Republicans, neither candidate after those two past lopsided wins managed to win reelection.

For 2020, it is hard to see a path to reelection. 538 gives Biden an 87% chance of winning.  In any scenario for a Trump victory, he must sweep all the close states and win one of the three key states of Wisconsin, Michigan, or Pennsylvania, where Biden appears to have an insurmountable lead.  Even if Trump wins every state south of Virginia, plus pulls off victories in Arizona, Iowa, and Ohio, he still comes up short by about ten votes.

Polls have been wrong before, but this year polling errors may break in favor of Biden, given the unusually large turnout.  I cannot see any realistic outcome other than a clear Biden electoral victory at the polls.