2020 Senate Predictions

With the appearance of a Democratic Presidential victory in November, the next question is whether Democrats will retake the Senate.  If so, that could make the next administration's legislative agenda much easier (assuming the Democrats retain the House as expected).  

Changing the Senate Majority

Winning a Democratic majority in the Senate will require several victories in traditionally red states. Currently, Democrats hold 47 Senate seats to Republican 53 (I count two independents who caucus with the Democrats as Democrats for these purposes).  Democrats must win three seats to get to a 50-50 tie, which would be broken by the Vice President.  Democrats hold 35 seats not up for election this year, whil Republicans hold only 30.

For 2020, Republicans hold 9 seats that are considered so safe that there no realistic chance of a Democratic victory there.  Democrats hold 7 safe seats.  That leaves 19 States at issue.

Republican Safe Seats

Of those remaining, Republican have two likely wins in Kentucky and Mississippi.  Kentucky Senator Mitch McConnell is facing a fierce challenge, but is expected to win 538 gives him a 96% chance of victory. Similarly, Democrat Mike Espy has made Mississippi a fight, but 538 gives incumbent Cindy Hyde-Smith a 91% chance of victory.  Hyde-Smith beat Espy in a 2018 special election by more than 7 points.

Six other states lean likely Republican:

1. Texas - Military veteran and teach Mary Jane Hegar hoped to give incumbent John Cornyn a run for his money in Texas as Cornyn seeks his fourth term.  Attacks on Cornyn's support for conservative judicial nominees have not had an impact in this red state. 538 gives Cornyn an 86% chance of victory.
2. Alaska - This remains a solidly red state.  Democrats could not even find an opponent to take on incumbent Daniel Sullivan.  Independent Candidate Al Gross has taken the Demoratic support in the State.  Even so, 538 gives Sullivan an 80% chance of reelection.
3. Kansas - Sen. Pat Roberts' decision to step down left an open seat in this red state.  Roger Marshall is expected to beat Barbara Bollier, given a chance of 73% by 538.
4. South Carolina - Democrats have smelled blood in the water, going after three term Senator Lindsey Graham.  Jamie Harrison has put up a well funded challenge in this red state.  538 gives Graham a 78% chance of reelection, while polls show Graham with a six point lead.
5. Georgia - Republican incumbent Sonny Purdue gets a 72% chance of reelection as Democrats focus on the other seat in that state (more on that later).
6. Alabama - Democrat Doug Jones won a surprise victory in a 2017 special election after his opponent was accused of sexual assault against several women, including minors.  This year, with Jones facing a non-child molester opponent in Republican Tommy Tuberville, Republicans expect to take back this seat in a very red state.  538 gives Tuberville a 72% chance of victory.

Democratic Safe Seats

Democrats expect almost certain wins in three states: New Hampshire (Jeanne Shaheen), Minnesota (Tina Smith), and New Mexico (Ben Ray Lujan).  None of these blue states in a blue year show any sign of changing.

There remain four other seats that are likely Democrat wins:

1. Colorado - In a strong year for Republicans, Cory Gardner narrowly defeated incumbent Mark Udall. As he seeks reelection in a blue state in a blue year, he faces popular former Democratic Governor John Hickenlooper, who has a double digit lead in most polls.  538 gives Hickenlooper an 80% chance of victory.
2. Arizona - In 2018, Martha McSally ran for the Senate seat in Arizona, and lost.  Then, Sen. John McCain died, and after a short interim period by John Kyle, the Republican Governor appointed McSally to the Senate in 2019.  She faces a challenge from astronaut Mark Kelly.  538 gives Kelly a 79% chance of victory.
3. Michigan  - First term incumbent Gary Peters has seen some weakness in this traditionally blue state.  Challenger John James has shown a surprising strength but remains consistently behind int he polls.  Peters is not expected to do as well as Biden does at the top of the ticket, but still gets a 79% chance of victory from 538.
4. Maine - In a traditionally blue state, Republican incumbent Susan Collins has won four Senate elections as a moderate, six years ago with nearly 70% of the vote.  However, Collins' support for Trump has cost her politically among Maine voters.  Opposition to impeachment and support for Supreme Court Justice Kavanaugh have greatly diminished her support in the state.  Speaker of the Maine House Sara Gideon has a 63% chance of victory according to 538.

Toss-up Seats

If all the likely elections go as expected the Democrats will hold 49 seats to 47 for the Republicans.  Four toss up states will decide the majority.  If the Democrats win the White House, a victory in any one of  these toss up states will give them control of the Senate.

Georgia: The wildest election of these four is the seat in Georgia.  While this is traditionally a red state, Biden is slightly ahead in most state polls. Johnny Isaakson resigned the seat in 2019, citing health reasons.  The Republican governor appointed Kelly Loeffler, who almost immediately faced opposition from fellow Republican Doug Collins.  This has made the election a three way race between the two Republicans and Democratic candidate Raphael Warnock.  If no candidate gets 50%, there will be a runoff election in January.

Current polls give Warnock about 31% of the vote, with incumbent Loeffler 23% and fellow Republican Collins 21%. Two other democratic candidates take another 8% combined, plus nearly 2% for the Libertarian candidate.  Almost certainly Warnock will be in the runoff election.  He will likely face Loeffler but no one has counted out Collins yet.  Regardless of which Republican goes to the runoff, 538 predicts a 51% chance of that candidate winning the runoff.

Iowa: Incumbent Republican Senator Joni Ernst was not favored to win in 2014 when she entered the competition for an open seat.  Her effective attacks on President Obama and considerable outside funding propelled her to an eight point victory in a strong year for Republicans.  Since Trump's election, the State had favored Democrats making the challenge from Theresa Greenfield a close one.

Both major parties have targeted this election and have spent record amounts in the state. In September, Ernst held pretty solid lead over her opponent. That lead slowly eroded until tracking polls gave Greenfield the edge on Oct. 7.  Currently, polling gives Greenfield an edge of about 0.5% over the incumbent.  538 gives Greenfield a 52% chance of victory.  

North Carolina: This traditionally Republican State has moved to the left in recent elections.  Incumbent Thom Tillis took office in 2014 barely winning in a strong year for Republicans.  Democrats have targeted this race with a strong chance of flipping it.  Challenger Cal Cunningham was recruited because his moderate profile and military background would appeal to North Carolina voters.  His wealth also ensured his campaign would be well funded.

Cunningham's lead in the polls took a hit in early October, when it was revealed that he had an affair with a female consultant on his campaign.  Around the same time, Tillis came down with Covid, which has prevented him from campaigning.  With these October surprises the result remains up in the air. Cunningham remains ahead in the polls by about 3%, and 538 gives him a 66% chance of victory.

Montana: Incumbent Steve Daines won in this red state in a strong Republican year of 2014, and after the Democratic candidate had to withdraw from the race less than 60 days before the election.  Daines' fairly solid conservative voting record made his chances of reelection good, until the popular Democratic Governor Steve Bullock opted to run against him.

While the race has been fairly tight, Daines maintains a roughly 3% edge over Bullock in most polls.  538 gives Daines a 68% chance of victory.

What to Watch on Election Night

Georgia will almost certainly be a runoff, and therefore inconclusive.  A Senate win in any one of three states: North Carolina, Iowa, or Montana will indicate likely Democratic control of the Senate in 2021.