Polls remain relatively unchanged from last week. Biden remains the favorite with an estimated 87% chance of victory in the general election. The last major event of the campaign, the final debate, is still scheduled for this week.
Biden supporters seem optimistic. There have been no real game changing October surprises this year. The biggest surprise was probably Trump and much of his top administration contracting Covid-19. This put attention back on the pandemic at a time when infection rates nationally seem to be on the rise again. This works against Trump, who wants to focus on other issues and his claim that a vaccine is just around the corner.
Trump's other hope for the election was his claim of credit for the economy. With record unemployment continuing and other sagging indicators, Trump has focused on the fact that the stock market has retained its value. Even so, with layoffs increasing after federal restrictions ended on October 1, and the failure of the federal government to pay for a second round of relief, it is not clear how much longer the economy can sustain even at current levels, or whether there will be a market crash.
Trump supporters, however, remain hopeful. They point to 2016 polls that showed Trump behind Clinton until election day. Republicans have argued that the polls are biased or simply wrong becaue many Trump supporters are skeptical of participating in them.
Pollsters have adjusted polling this year with an expectation of higher turnout of people with less than a college degree. Higher turnout of this group in 2016 is largely believed to account for Trump's win. However, even if Trump support does turn out a few points higher than polls expect, Biden's lead could still withstand that.
Trump Path to Victory
In this scenario, Trump wins every state he won in 2016, except for Michigan and Wisconsin. He picks up Nevada, which he lost by the tightest of margins in 2016.
Narrow wins in Wisconsin and Michigan were key to Trumps 2016 win. Polling shows Biden up by over 6% in both states, with Biden at 50% and Trump at 43% in both. Those seem like unsurmountable hurdles at this point.
Key States
Is this Trump-win scenario realistic? I doubt it. To see why, let's look at the ten closest states as indicated by 2070toWin reported polling averages: Georgia, Iowa, Ohio, Florida, Arizona, North Carolina, Texas, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Alaska. In the above map, most of those states are must-wins for Trump (he could lose one or two of the smaller states like Iowa or Nevada). Polling shows Biden ahead in seven of them. These include the "Trump must win" states of North Carolina, Florida, Georgia, and Pennsylvania.
Pennsylvania may be the hardest state on this list for Trump to win. Biden's polling lead has gone down slightly from about 6% to just under 5% in the past week. Even so, most experts give Pennsylvania to Biden, even though Trump won there in 2016. Every single poll reported on 270towin shows a Biden victory there, between 3% and 11%. The consensus shows Biden at 49%, Trump 44% with 7% other/undecided. Nevada looks similarly insurmountable with Biden winning every poll in that state by 2%-14%. Consensus polls give Biden 48% to Trump's 42%, with 10% other/undecided. Arizona, likewise gives Biden a 3% edge Biden 49% to Trump 46% with Biden winning 9 out of 10 polls.
Florida and Georgia are generally considered toss-ups. Consensus polls put Biden ahead by less than 1% in Georgia. Traditional voter suppression tactics for black voters in Georgia will probably be effective in keeping that state red. Similarly, Florida Republicans have been pretty effective in nullifying a State referendum to restore voting rights to ex-felons. This could have led to several hundred thousand more Democratic votes in this notoriously close state. Republican efforts to suppress these votes have kept Florida within the margin of error. Consensus polling shows Biden 49%, Trump 47%, with 4% other/undecided.
Even if Trump wins Florida, Georgia, and a few other states where Biden has an edge, the path to victory is a difficult and narrow one for Trump. The consensus map gives Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Nevada to Biden, which would assure him of victory. Trump can win all the tossup states on this map and still lose the election.
October Surprise
Trump, therefore, must hope for an event that shakes up the election and changes voter minds. In 2016, this happened in the days before the election when the Justice Department announced it would reopen an investigation into Hillary Clinton's emails.
Recently, the Trump Justice Department announce a new 2020 investigation into Hillary Clinton's emails. This stunts seems laughably pathetic given that there is no new evidence of anything four years later, and it is unclear why voters would hold such an investigation of Clinton emails against Biden, as opposed to holding it against Clinton in 2016.
In 2016, much of the attacks on Hillary Clinton, came from a concerted misinformation campaign run from Russia. There are questions about whether Russia may attempt a similar last minute surprise i 2020. There were reports earlier this year that Russian Hackers took emails from the Ukrainian gas company Burisma, which the Trump administration has accused of engaging in corruption involving Biden's son Hunter. It is possible that Russia could release emails, intermingled with fraudulent emails that it has fabricated, in order to attack Biden. Russia engaged in similar tactics during earlier European elections.
If there is still an October Surprise, it will be... well... a surprise. In order to have its full effect, one would expect it to be released this week, just before the last Presidential debate. That timing would provide maximum impact.
Absent some event that can alter voters by at least 5%. It appears that Biden will be the President in 2021.
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