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Sunday, February 28, 2016

SC Democratic Primary Results

Hillary Clinton trounced Bernie Sanders in the South Carolina Primary yesterday.  The final result was Clinton as almost 74% to Sanders' 26%, a nearly 3 to 1 margin.

The margin of victory was even bigger than expected.  Clinton was polling 25%-30% above Sanders in most polls.  The increased margin shows that the Clinton campaign really pulled out all stops to get supporters to the polls while the Sanders campaign, seeing  an inevitable loss, did not make as much of an effort there, turning its focus to Super Tuesday.

Clinton won among virtually all groups, blacks, whites, all age groups except 18-24 year olds, all levels of education, income levels, among liberals, moderates, and conservatives.  Other than the very young, Sanders only one with first time voters and with independents over Democrats.  You can view the demographic details at CNN.

The upshot of all this is that Clinton looks very strong going into Super Tuesday next week.  She did not want a repeat of the 2008 race where she and her opponent both looked close as the early primary period came to an end.   She wanted to look inevitable, and she does.  I will handicap Super Tuesday in my next post, but it seems clear that Clinton now has a commanding lead.  Absent some major event that causes a huge shift, Clinton should cruise to the nomination.

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