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Saturday, February 27, 2016

Eve of the SC Democratic Primary

Today, a week after the Republicans, the Democrats of South Carolina begin voting for their party's Presidential nominee in the last contest before Super Tuesday.

Hillary Clinton is expected to trounce Bernie Sanders in this State, where African-Americans make up a majority of Democratic voters, and where Clinton has been courting black leaders and other party leaders for years.  This is one primary where experience and years of planning will pay dividends.  Don't expect any last minute surprises.  I'll ignore the obvious point that surprises are, by definition, unexpected.  However little should change here without any vote altering events appearing in the news in the past week or two.  About 10% of the voters were undecided as of the latest polls from last week.

More and more, Hillary seems to be the inevitable nominee (really, this time).  Polls show her expecting to win South Carolina by a good 25 points over Sanders.  SC voters have never seemed to "feel the Bern."  Even Joe Biden was beating Bernie in the SC polls back in November, and Biden was not even campaigning.

With a sold win in Nevada and an even larger win in South Carolina, Hillary should move into Super Tuesday as the leading candidate.  If the takes a solid majority of the delegates then, Bernie should quickly become a distant memory.

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