President-Elect Biden

 With the vote counting now nearly complete, the press has called Pennsylvania for Biden.  This gives him sufficient electoral votes to win the presidency.  If the current counts prove correct, Biden will have flipped all three critical midwestern states that traditionally go Democrat but which Trump took in 2016: Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. (ok, traditionally Pennsylvania is not considered "midwest" but for purposes of voter sentiment in this election, it is).  Biden also flipped Arizona and eked out the narrowest of victories in Georgia.  

Trump has refused to concede, citing claims of voter fraud or other voting irregularities.  Several critical states were won very narrowly. At current count Biden has won the following states by narrow margins.

• Georgia, 10,000 (0.2%)
• Pennsylvania, 37000 (0.5%)
• Arizona, 19,000 (0.6%) 
• Wisconsin, 20,000 (0.6%)
• Nevada, 27,000 (2.1%)
• Michigan 148,000 (2.7%)

Trump would have to win challenges in at least three of these states in order to win the electoral college.  Wisconsin, for example allows for a recount request if the margin is under 1%.  However, the challenging campaign has to pay for the recount if the margin is above 0.25%.  The Trump campaign is trying to raise funds from supporters for this purpose.  In 2016, Green party candidate demanded a recount in Wisconsin, which changed the vote total by only 136 votes.  In other words, the odds of finding thousands of incorrect votes in order to change the outcome, and achieving that in three different states is a virtually impossible effort.

Trump is also trying to challenge votes in some states, attempting to have votes thrown out by the courts.  For example, some states extended deadlines for the receipt of mail in ballots in response to accusations that the post office was not delivering those ballots before the deadline.  Other states made changes to voting procedures to allow for absentee voting that deviated from state law requirements, in order to accommodate health concerns of voters and poll workers. 

It is conceivable that a court could throw out sufficient votes to alter the results.  However, courts typically do not overrule state decision not to disenfranchise voters for technical ballot or timing issues unless there is proof that the legal deviation were intentionally designed to benefit one candidate over another.  There does not appear to be any evidence of such activity in this election.

The likely outcome of all of these court cases and recount challenges is that there will be no change in the current results.  The president may complain and his supporters may protest in the streets, but any actual change from these efforts seems rather far fetched.  

Perhaps a partisan governor might opt to push through an electoral slate from the losing side based on claims of fraud, even if baseless.  Such a maneuver would probably require a Republican governor and Republican majorities in the state legislature.  Only Arizona and Georgia fall into that category. Wisconsin Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Nevada all have Democratic governors.  Therefore, even such an extraordinary change in Arizona and Georgia would not give Trump enough electoral votes to remain in office.

Because Biden appears to have a solid three state lead in the electoral college, and because the winning margin in all of the closest states is in the tens of thousands of votes, Biden's victory seems secure.

Incidentally, as a follow up to my voting predictions the week before the election, with Georgia and Pennsylvania having flipped in late vote counting.  My predictions were correct in 48 States.  Only Florida and North Carolina went for Trump when I predicted Biden victories.

Maybe President-Elect Biden

It is now three days after the election day and there still is no final result.  News organizations are tentatively calling the election for Biden, but with several close states still in dispute.  Conventional wisdom, as I write this in the early morning of Friday 11/6, is that Biden has won the election with about one state to spare.

Days before the election, I predicted, primarily based on polling, that these would be the results, other than that I also predicted Biden would win Florida, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania.  Trump, in fact, once again greatly improved his results beyond what the polls predicted, but not quite enough to win reelection.

The biggest surprise for me was Trump's second win in Pennsylvania.  This has been a traditionally blue state which, before Trump, had not supported a Republican presidential candidate in the prior six elections, over a quarter of a century.

Polling Inaccuracies

In a close election such as this, I would have predicted, as the polls indicated, that Trump would win Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada before he would win Pennsylvania.  That was not the case.  If the tentative results are confirmed, it was Biden's ability to hang onto Nevada, as well as flipping Arizona, Wisconsin, and Michigan that gave him the victory.  An razor thin Biden win in Georgia is icing on the cake for Biden, but not crucial to the outcome.

Pundits will debate for years why the polling was wrong once again.  Clearly it was.  However, until there are more detailed statistics about who voted and why, we can't say whether the error was a problem with predictions in the demographic makeup of the turnout, or simply an inability to get a truly random sample of honest answers to polling questions.

I had thought that a higher turnout would benefit the Democrats more than it did.  While it did flip a few crucial states, it did not have the impact that most experts thought.

That said, there are still questions about some state outcomes.  Trump is questioning the results in Arizona, Wisconsin, and Michigan.  Whether legal efforts or claims of fraud will change any outcomes remains to be seen.  However, a narrow Biden victory appears to be the final result.

While Biden appears to have won, it is far from the mandate that Democrats had wanted.  Democrats lost several key Senate races, which appears to ensure that Republicans will maintain a Senate majority.  Democrats also lost several House seats.  These were mostly districts that were traditionally Republican, but where Democrats had won during the surge of 2018 elections.  Democrats will retain a slimmer House majority.  That leaves a divided government, with neither side able to implement much in the way of new policy.

Trump's loss can be attributed to the fact that he won several critical states in 2016 by only a few thousand votes. Those states turned, mostly due to increased turnout.  Although Trump received more votes in most states than he did in 2016, Biden received even more than that.  What changed in 2020 is that a relatively small number of people, who lean Democrat and who either did not vote in 2016 or who voted for a third party candidate, came out for Biden.  

Why Trump Lost

I deliberately said that Trump lost and not that Biden won because this election appears to have been about Trump.  People were either pro or anti Trump, and not particularly excited about Biden.  Those opposed to Trump, however, rallied around Biden in record numbers.

Trump did not lose votes.  In 2016 Trump got about 63 million votes nationwide.  This year, he will probably be over 70 million once all the votes are counted.  Clinton got about 66 million votes in 2016, while Biden will get about 74 million in 2020.  So, everyone who voted for Trump in 2016 probably still voted for Trump again in 2020.  But many Democrats, and Democrat-leaning independents, turned out in even greater numbers.

Look, for example, at Michigan.  In 2016, Trump beat Clinton by about 10,000 votes.  He won 2,279,543 to Clinton's 2,268,839.  In 2020, Trump increased his vote total to  2,648,818, but Biden beat him by nearly 150,000 votes, garnering 2,795,714.  So even though Trump increased his vote total in the state by 16%, he still lost a state that he won in 2016.

So, what changed?  In 2016 many Democrat leaning voters were not crazy about Clinton.  Many voted for third party candidates, about 4% nationwide, 5% in Michigan.  By contrast, in 2020, only about 1.5% of all votes went to third parties.  In 2016, many voters were convinced Clinton would win anyway and voted third party to express dissatisfaction with both major party candidates.  In 2020, I don't think voters were more enthusiastic about Biden as a candidate.  Rather, they preferred a Democrat to Trump and realized that voting for a third party could give reelection to Trump.

Many others stayed home four years ago.  Voter participation in 2016 was about 55%.  This year, it will be about 66%.  Many voters who do not regularly vote, did vote this year, again mostly out of increased opposition to Trump rather than out of specific positive feelings for Biden.  So the big change this year was mostly a matter of participation and focus on the two major party candidates.  It was not a matter of any voters really changing party loyalty from four years ago.  Biden did not win back any Trump voters.  He managed to turn out non-voters or third party voters in greater numbers, which benefited him at the margins.

White working class voters still remain relatively hostile to the Democratic party.  They like Trump as an anti-establishment candidate because they see the establishment as working against their interests.  They accept the premise that Democrat taxes, regulations, and trade policies kill jobs and slow the economy.  Trump promised to improve their lives. Even if he did not deliver, they blame Democrat opposition for that failure and not Trump's inability to keep his promises.  As a result, they continue their support for Trump.

Because these close elections are won or lost at the margins, the margins favored Trump in 2016 but not in 2020.  We have not seen any major shift in voters' views toward either party though.

Lessons for 2024

Trump was able to put together a winning coalition in 2016 by appearing as the anti-establishment candidate, just as Obama did in 2008 and 2012.  Voters have never liked Washington insiders.  That is why sitting Senators or Congressmen have only won the Presidency three or four times in the history of the republic.

Trump's victory in 2016 tapped into that anti-establishment voter sentiment.  His loss in 2020 appears primarily the result of stirring up too much animus in the opposition, resulting in the far greater opposition turnout and focused voting against his reelection. 

Critical to any victory is success in the mid-west.  Democrats have a lock on New England, mid-Atlantic states and the west coast. Republicans have a fairly solid lock on the south (with the exception of Florida which always swings) as well as the middle plains states and most of the mountain states.  If a major party candidate can come challenge one of those opposing strongholds, that can greatly change the election.  For example, if the Democrats nominated someone who was popular in Texas, or the Republicans nominated someone popular in New York, that could change everything.  But barring that, the election comes down to Florida and the Midwest.

Midwestern white working class voters tend to be very anti-establishment.  They generally believe that government does not have their best interests at heart and that they are being left behind.  Trump was able to tap into that sentiment in 2016 with his protectionist views and his claims that he could bring back manufacturing jobs.  Despite a failure to deliver, he retained most of his support.

A future Republican candidate will need to be able to tap into that same pool of midwestern voters.  Such a candidate must do so without alienating other groups that were able to defeat the Trump coalition in key mid-west states.

Similarly, a Democratic candidate must convince these same voters that he or she has their interests at heart.  Biden had tried to express an emotional connection with these voters, but many still saw him as an establishment candidate who favored the traditional big government agenda that these voters distrust.

 

Both parties need to focus on the mid-west if they want to win the White House in 2024.  Although appeals to Hispanics, women, young people, etc. are all important, appeals to the white working class voters of the mid-west seem the most critical to any future election.

The Morning After - 2020 Who Won?

 Trump has made the election closer than any poll showed.  

In Florida, the consensus of ten polls on the two days before the elections showed Biden ahead by 2.7%.  The election results, not quite complete, show Trump winning state by about 3.5%. That is a more than 6% margin of error!  

In Georgia, poll results showed a squeaker Biden victory of 0.2%.  Instead, it appears that Trump will carry the state by about 2.2%. Similarly North Carolina polls gave Biden an increasingly narrowing lead, finish with just a 0.3% lead the day before the election.  Results indicate that Trump will probably win the state by about 2%.  Neither state has been called by the major news organizations yet, but it appears Trump will win both.

One can go through all the battleground states seeing the Trump consistently beat the margin of error by several percentage points.  Since all of the margins seem to fall consistently in Trump's favor, it indicate that the majority of polling firms simply got their turnout assumptions wrong.  Of course, there will be months ahead to diagnose all that.

As of 5:00 AM eastern time, as I write this, the election is still in dispute  As I predicted, if the election was tight, the results would come down to Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.  Consensus polling on the day before the election showed Biden ahead in all three States:

• Wisconsin, Biden +9.2%
• Michigan, Biden +5.4%
• Pennsylvania, Biden +3.7%

Those are pretty steep numbers for Trump to overcome.  However, Trump is leading in the counts in all three of those states: 

Wisconsin, Biden +0.2%

Michigan, Trump +4.9%

Pennsylvania, Trump +12.9%

In an ordinary election year with the majority of votes counted, one would probably predict Trump the winner of both Michigan and Pennsylvania.  But for so many reasons, this is not an ordinary election year.  Most of the uncounted votes are paper mail in ballots where Biden is doing considerably better than Trump.  Michigan and Pennsylvania only have about 75% of all votes counted, most of which were in person votes, that were expected to lean Trump.  Also, many of the uncounted votes in Pennsylvania are from Philadelphia and Pittsburgh: both Biden strongholds.  It is possible the states may still swing back to Biden, but a 12.9% deficit is a big one to overcome.

Biden could still win the election without Pennsylvania, if he manages to hold on to Arizona and Nevada, both of which are still too close to call.  In Arizona, Biden leads by 5% in the count. In Nevada Biden leads by less than 1%.  So, the election is still far from over.  

States are frantically working to produce final results as Trump has called for an end to counting the rest of the votes, in defiance of all election norms.  If Biden manages to win in late counts, Trump and his supporters will complain about a stolen election, that they had won on election night and that the establishment somehow stole the election from them.

This was a story that Democrats hoped to avoid by having a result that put Biden in a substantial lead that could not realistically be question.  Once again though, Trump has defied conventional wisdom, overperformed polling results, and will likely continue the fight in the courts, in the streets, and by any means necessary.

Will Pennsylvania be the Keystone to the 2020 Election?

Trump has seen a small improvement in the polls in the final week of the campaign.  He has slight leads of 1%-2% in the critical states of Iowa and Ohio.  He is within the margin of error, less than 3% in Florida, North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona.  If Trump can manage to win all of those close states, as well as the states where he is expected to win more easily, he could have 259 electoral votes.  

Three states that Trump won in 2016 seem to be leaning to Biden: Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.  Biden's lead in Wisconsin has widened in polls to around 9%-10%.  Michigan gives a 5%-6% point Biden lead in the polls.  If Biden wins Michigan, both candidates could have 259 votes.  At that point, Pennsylvania, with its 20 electoral votes, would decide the election.  As of election day, polls show Biden with a 3%-4% lead in Pennsylvania, within the margin of error, and in a State where Trump has defeated poll expectations before.

Pennsylvania election law does not permit poll workers to begin counting paper ballots until election day.  So if the election comes down to Pennsylvania, what happens.

If you are old enough, you remember Florida in the 2000 elections, when that decisive state took weeks to turn in a final count.  Both parties attempted to manipulate the process, either through the courts, in the media, or in street protests.  That process could repeat itself in Pennsylvania in 2020, on steroids.

Given the level of emotions and accusations of cheating and unfair election practices, the whole legitimacy of representative elected government comes into question.

None of this may happen if a few other States put a candidate so far ahead that the outcome in Pennsylvania won't be determinative.  Of course it is also possible that two or three other states are too close to call and that we have both parties pushing their desired outcome in several key states.

The sad case is that if the election is close, it may become violent.  If it becomes violent, the State of the Union could be in question to such an extent for the first time since the 1860's.

What to watch on election night 2020.  

Traditionally major news organization will wait to call a state for a candidate until the polls close in that state.  They used to make earlier predictions, but were criticized for having possibly inaccurate predictions affect the turnout in key states.   Therefore, they now wait until the polls close.  In many cases the outcome was a foregone conclusion. If an election in a given state appears to be a route, the new organizations will call it within the first minute of polls closing. If there is still doubt, they will wait to see more results.

This year will be tougher to call early for many states.  Large numbers of write in ballots meant that it could take days, rather than hours, to call an outcome.  When states begin to provide partial results, it is easy to think of those numbers as a good sampling of the ultimate count.  This is not the case.  Many times some jurisdictions produce results faster than others.  Since a candidate doing well in some parts of a state does not indicate how they will do in others, that is not a reliable indicator. However, if a candidate is doing much better or worse in a particular precinct, that may be more indicative.

The conventional wisdom in 2020 is that Biden will do better in the written ballots.  Trump supporters are more likely to avoid Covid-19 risks and go to the polls in person.  Biden supporters are more likely to submit mail in ballots.  Therefore, you may see early Trump leads in many states as electronic polling results are submitted, then see that lead fade when the mail in votes are counted.  Some states, like the key swing state of Pennsylvania, do not allow poll workers even to begin counting mail in ballots until election day.  Therefore, the tedious process of counting ballots that were mailed a month ago may take days to count after election day. 

7:00 PM eastern time is when the first polls (I'm going to use eastern time for all times I mention, just for consistency's sake).  I'm going to put in bold those key states that are considered ones to watch closely:

• Georgia - is up for grabs but went Trump in2016.  Biden has a slight edge in the polls.  It will probably be too close to call right away. A Biden win in Georgia probably spells doom for Trump.  An early call for Trump here would not be fatal for Biden but might indicate a trend of Trump appearing stronger than the polls predict. Georgia also has a tossup Senate race (actually two) which may decide control of the Senate.
• Indiana - conservative home of the VP should be an early call for Trump
• Kentucky - conservative and should be an early call for Trump.  Senator Mitch McConnell has faced serious competition here but is expected to win.
• South Carolina - conservative and should be an early call for Trump.  Senator Lindsey Graham has an even tougher fight, but is expected to win.  An unlikely Graham defeat would presage almost certain Democrat control of the Senate
• Virginia - has trended Democrat in recent elections and should be an early call for Biden.
• Vermont - liberal bastion should be an early call for Biden.

Shortly after 7:00 a likely tie election would have an electoral count like this (if you see a candidate begin to exceed these numbers, he is the likely winner):

Biden - 16

Trump - 44

7:30 PM has three poll closings:

• North Carolina - This is a swing state that voted for Trump in 2016. Biden has a slight edge in the polls.  Whoever wins here will be a good indication for the overall winner.  Although Biden still has a good path to victory without this state, Trump does not. NC also has a tossup Senate campaign that may indicate control of the Senate.
• Ohio - generally a conservative leaning state that voted for Trump in 2016.  The race is a statistical dead heat here.  Trump really must win Ohio to have any chance of a national victory.
• West Virginia - conservative state that should be an early call for Trump.

Shortly after 7:30 a likely tie election would have an electoral count like this:

Biden - 16

Trump - 82

8:00 sees a large number of poll closings:

• Alabama - conservative state that should be an early call for Trump.
• Connecticut - liberal state that should be an early call for Biden.
• Delaware - liberal state that should be an early call for favorite-son Biden.
• Florida - this traditional swing state went for Trump in 2016.  It is a must win for Trump in 2020.  Biden has a slight electoral advantage.  Florida will likely be too close to call on election night.
• Illinois - liberal state that should be an early call for Biden.
• Maine - liberal state that should be an early call for Biden.  The state has one electoral vote granted by congressional district.  One of these may be close.  That one swing district it worth watching. Maine also has a tossup Senate campaign that may impact control of the Senate.
• Maryland - liberal state that should be an early call for Biden.
• Massachusetts - liberal state that should be an early call for Biden.
• Mississippi - conservative state that should be an early call for Trump.
• Missouri - conservative state that should be an early call for Trump.
• New Hampshire - leaning liberal state that can be the Republican's best hope for a state win in New England.  Even so, the state is expected to go for Biden.
• New Jersey - liberal state that should be an early call for Biden.
• Oklahoma - conservative state that should be an early call for Trump.
• Pennsylvania - liberal leaning state that went for Trump in 2016.  Biden is well ahead in the polls, but don't expect an early call here.  Trump may have a lead in the results until paper ballots are counted.  
• Rhode Island - liberal state that should be an early call for Biden.
• Tennessee - conservative state that should be an early call for Trump.
• Washington, D.C. - liberal does not describe DC strongly enough.  It has never voted for anyone but a Democrat in its history of voting.  I can call it a week in advance for Biden.

Shortly after 8:00 a likely tie election would have an electoral count like this:

Biden - 116

Trump - 154

8:30 only one state, Arkansas reports  - conservative state that should be an early call for Trump.

Shortly after 8:30 a likely tie election would have an electoral count like this:

Biden - 116

Trump - 160

9:00 - If the results in key states here are known early, that should end speculation about the ultimate winner.

• Arizona - a traditionally conservative state that voted for Trump in 2016, but is trending for Biden this year.  Results here are too close to call and may be an indicator of the national results.
• Colorado - has trended Democrat in recent elections and it expected to be an early call for Biden.
• Kansas - conservative state that should be an early call for Trump.
• Louisiana - conservative state that should be an early call for Trump.
• Michigan - this traditionally liberal state voted for Trump in 2016.  Biden is significantly ahead in the polls this year.  A Biden win here could spell the end for Trump. 
• Minnesota - This traditionally liberal state has the longest Democrat voting streak it the country.  Trump came close to winning hear in 2016.  Biden has substantial polling lead and should be an early call for Biden.
• Nebraska  - conservative state that should be an early call for Trump.
• New Mexico - liberal state that should be an early call for Biden.
• New York - liberal state that should be an early call for Biden.
• North Dakota  - conservative state that should be an early call for Trump.
• South Dakota  - conservative state that should be an early call for Trump.
• Texas - this traditionally conservative state has been showing signs of becoming a swing state in recent elections.  Trump holds a slight polling advantage. If the state fails to go for Trump early, that could presage the end of the election. It is a must-win state for Trump.
• Wisconsin - another traditionally Democrat state where Trump won a slim victory in 2016.  Biden seems to be doing well in the polls.  This is another swing state that should be determinative.
• Wyoming - conservative state that should be an early call for Trump.

Shortly after 9:00 a likely tie election would have an electoral count like this:

Biden - 185

Trump - 247

10:00 If the election is still in contention by this time, a couple of states here may be determinative.

• Iowa - this state trends Republican and went for Trump in 2016.  Biden has a very slight polling lead.  This is a Trump must-win state or could presage a Biden landslide.
• Montana - conservative state that should be an early call for Trump.
• Nevada - this state has trended liberal and by a slim margin supported Clinton in 2016.  Trump had hoped for a pickup here, but is trending Biden.
• Utah - conservative state that should be an early call for Trump.

Shortly after 10:00 a likely tie election would have an electoral count like this:

Biden - 191

Trump - 262

11:00 closes polls on the west coast, which is a Biden must area.

• California - liberal state that should be an early call for Biden.
• Idaho - conservative state that should be an early call for Trump.
• Oregon - liberal state that should be an early call for Biden.
• Washington - liberal state that should be an early call for Biden.

Shortly after 11:00 a likely tie election would have an electoral count like this:

Biden - 265

Trump - 266

12:00 sees polls close for Hawaii - liberal state that should be an early call for Biden.

Shortly after 12:00 a likely tie election would have an electoral count like this:

Biden - 269

Trump - 266

1:00 sees polls close in Alaska - conservative state that should be an early call for Trump.

Shortly after 1:00 a likely tie election would have an electoral count like this:

Biden - 269

Trump - 269

=====================================

Key Senate Races to watch on election night:

• Georgia (two seats)
• North Carolina
• Maine
• Iowa
• Montana

Democrats must win two of these seats to hold fifty in the Senate.  Republicans must win four.  Fifty votes give control to the party in the White House since the Vice President breaks all ties.