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Sunday, June 12, 2016

Clinton Goes Over The Top

Hillary Clinton finally has a majority of delegates.  There was no question that she would cross that threshold yesterday.  When California, New Jersey, and several other States awarded hundreds of delegates.  Some sources report that Clinton had the necessary majority before the day began with the support of several more unpledged superdelegates.

Clinton not only won the majority, she decisively defeated Sanders in the final major primary day. Clinton defeated Sanders by more than 10 points in California and 20 points in New Jersey.  She also won victories in New Mexico and South Dakota.  Sanders pulled out victories in North Dakota and a slim victory in North Dakota.

The current count shows Clinton with 2784 delegates, well above the 2383 needed for a majority at the convention.  By contrast, Sanders has only 1877.  Sanders claims he can still win by convincing the superdelegates, whose votes can change at any time, to support him rather than Clinton.  There is no reason to believe that this will happen.  Even only counting pledged delegates, Clinton has 2203 to Sanders' 1828.  Clinton needs only 180 of the 712 superdelegates to support her.  She currently has 589 pledged to her, compared to 59 for Sanders.  The only way Sanders can win would be to convince more than 400 of the superdelegates pledged to Clinton to switch their votes to him.

There is no way that would happen.  Even if something fundamentally drastic happened, like Clinton dropped dead or was indicted and dropped out of the race before the convention, the Party would likely find a new candidate to replace her, probably an establishment choice like Joe Biden. Democrats have pretty clearly rejected Sanders, who only just recently even registered as a Democrat and who has so many unexamined skeletons from his socialist past that he could never win a national election.

Even President Obama has now endorsed Clinton and is calling her the presumptive nominee.  So why does Sanders continue to fight?  Clearly he wants something out of this.  It could be the VP slot (unlikely) or at least some say in who it is.  He might want more party influence to change the rules for the 2020 elections.  Given his age though, it is highly unlikely he would ever run again.   He may simply want to change the party platform to promote his more liberal agenda.  That may be possible since no one much cares about the platform anyway.  A candidate is not bound to follow it.

There is still one more primary.  DC holds its democratic primary on Tuesday, June 14. with only 20 more pledged delegates up for grabs.  It will not change anything, but may be what Sanders is waiting for before conceding.  If he does really go to the Convention and fight the hopeless fight, it will only harm the party and annoy the establishment Democrats even more.

Both primaries are now done.

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