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Friday, April 1, 2016

Cruz Surge in Wisconsin

With a dearth of primaries in recent weeks, politics watchers have been waiting for the next contest, which is going to be the Wisconsin Primary on April 5.

If Kasich could do well anywhere, one would think that a mid-western State like Wisconsin would be a good place to make a stand.  In fact, Kasich remains a distant third, making his continuing candidacy more of a joke every day.

Trump had been ahead in most Wisconsin polls until recent weeks when Cruz moved up to a statistical dead heat.  Now, with the endorsement of Gov. Scott Walker, several gaffs by Mr. Trump, and a growing realization among the electorate that Cruz is the only real option to Trump, Sen. Cruz is enjoying a surge in the polls.  It looks now as if he might win the State.

Wisconsin is considered a "winner take all" State, even though a large number of delegates are given to the winner of each Congressional district.  Therefore, delegates may get spread around.  But Cruz looks poised to take the lion's share.

Following Wisconsin, there are a range of States that seem to indicate a Trump win: Colorado, New York, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, and Delaware all look good for Trump.  Of course the situation remains fluid.  Voters seem to be slipping away from Trump in these later contests.

Still, Trump's delegate lead is significant.  Cruz and Kasich remain focused on simply denying Trump an outright majority, not winning a majority themselves.

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