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Wednesday, April 20, 2016

Big Wins for Frontrunners in NY

Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump both won big in their home state of NY.  While both were expected to win, the size of the victory, especially Trump's took many  by surprise.

Republicans

Trump dominated NY with over 60% of the vote.  Delegates would have been awarded proportionally if his two opponents could have kept him below 50%.  That was not even close though.  Trump also won more than 50% in almost all the Congressional districts, giving him all of those delegates as well.  In total, Trump has one at least 89 of the 95 delegates.  Kasich, with a strong showing in NYC, picked up at least three delegates.  Cruz left with a big goose egg, nothing.  Cruz seemed to have seen the writing on the wall and began turning his attention to other states a few days ago.

After yesterday's win, Trump has 845 delegates.  He needs 1237 for a majority at the convention. There are only 734 still available, so Trump still needs to win a majority of all outstanding delegates in order to collect another 392 to clinch the nomination on the first vote.  It remains possible but difficult.

Cruz, who had a good run in some smaller conservative caucus states in the middle of the country, is looking much weaker on the east coast.  This third place finish behind Kasich takes away from the idea that his is the only choice for the anti-Trump crowd.  For Kasich though, a said second place finish is probably too little too late.

Next week, we see another five mid-Atlantic States, Pennsylvania and Maryland being the largest. Trump's polls indicate a win for him next week as well.  A Trump nomination on the first ballot still remains within reach.

Democrats

Hillary Clinton defeated Bernie Sanders by a good 15 points.  Even a tie or small win for Sanders in NY would have made his delegate math more difficult.  While it is still mathematically possible for Sanders to win, something really drastic would need to change.

Including Superdelegates, Clinton has 1930 of the 2382 needed to win.  With 1646 still up for grabs in future contests, Clinton needs a mere 28% of the remaining delegates for her majority.  In other words, Sanders would need to win more than 70% of the vote in every remaining State.  With Clinton ahead in most remaining State polls, that seems highly unlikely.  Still, Clinton will likely have to wait until the California Primary in June before she can claim the needed majority of delegates to put her over the top.

Looking Ahead:

Next week, five States hold primaries: Pennsylvania, Maryland, Connecticut, Delaware, and Rhode Island.  Expected results in those States will probably be similar to NY, although the wins might be a little closer.  Trump will be focused on getting over 50% to take advantage of winner take all provisions.  That will be the main question in these contests.

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