Clinton Wins Puerto Rico

Hillary Clinton finish the weekend with a victory in the Puerto Rico Primary.  With 67 delegates available, both sides made the effort to campaign in the larges US territory.  Clinton beat Sanders solidly by about 20 points.  She won 36 delegates to 24 for Sanders.  Clinton also already had six of the seven superdelegates pledged to her with one still remaining uncommitted.  Only about 60,000 voters turned out to vote.

The victory in Puerto Rico puts Clinton a mere 27 delegates away from an absolute majority.  With California, New Jersey, New Mexico, Montana, North Dakota, and South Dakota poised to distribute 806 delegates on Tuesday, Sanders could win 95% of the vote in every State and still not prevent Clinton from reaching a majority.

Sanders is still pinning his hopes on the fact that Clinton's victory is dependent on superdelegates.  Without counting superdelegates, who can change their vote an any time, Clinton has only 1809 delegates.  Even if she wins 60% of the remaining delegates, she would still be short of an absolute majority counting only pledged delegates.

Sanders strategy seems to be to win California, which he may possibly do, but only by the most narrow of margins, that call on the superdelegates to change their votes since he is the most popular toward the end of the campaign.

This seems highly unrealistic for many reasons.  First, Clinton leads sanders by any popular measure.  She has won more pledged delegates, States, and total primary votes.  Second, she is the establishment candidate.  Third, these delegates already pledged to Clinton because they support her candidacy.  Sanders is asking the Democratic Party establishment to change their committed votes to support a non-establishment candidate who primary voters have rejected by any reasonable measure.  That will not happen.

Sanders' real card is the fact that he can still be a spoiler.  If he screams and shouts that the Democratic Party is unfair, and perhaps even endorses a third party like the Green Party candidate, he could siphon off enough of his supporters to kill Clinton's chances against Trump.  On the other hand, if he plays nice and tells his supporters that we must all come together to defeat Trump, that will go a long way toward uniting the party.

The only question is how high a price Sanders can exact for his support.  He could demand to be on the ticket as VP (highly unlikely).  He could insist Clinton choose a VP from a list of acceptable candidates. He could insist on changes to the Primary system for the next elections.  He could demand the appointment of a new acceptable DNC Chair, or he could just demand some control over the Party platform, which everyone pretty much ignores anyway.

There is no real path to prevent Clinton from obtaining a majority of delegates.  The only question now is whether Sanders can support her in a meaningful way.

Sunday March 6 Results

Two contests on Sunday finished off an interesting weekend.

The Democrats had their Democratic Caucus.  Sanders beat Clinton by 65% to 35%.  It adds to Sanders' successes in Kansas and Nebraska, but still leaves Clinton with more delegates this weekend after her big victory in Louisiana.

Maine gives continued hope to Sanders supporters that he can continue to chip away and Clinton's lead.  If he can carry the momentum into larger States this Tuesday, it is possible we could see a real match.  But Clinton is favored in both Michigan and Mississippi on Tuesday, which should allow her to pull further away from Sanders.  Clinton is expected to win by 20 points in Michigan and 40 points in Mississippi.  If those predictions come true, Sanders' path to the nomination looks bleak indeed.

Rubio scored his second big win this campaign season with an impressive and overwhelming victory in Puerto Rico, winning all 23 delegates with more than 70% of the vote. Rubio was the only candidate who bothered to campaign on the island, with the others focused more on larger State contests approaching over the next few days.

Rubio's win cuts into Cruz's call to become the sole Trump alternative in the race.  It also takes away from Kasich's attempt to displace Rubio as the Establishment choice against the top two: Trump and Cruz.  Perhaps Trump is the real winner as each of the three opponents divide the anti-Trump opposition.

On Tuesday, Trump is favored in the polls in both Michigan and Mississipi. However, Kasich hopes to do well in Michigan, better than the polls suggest.  If he can, win or at least take a strong second,  he can perhaps carry that momentum into his home State of Ohio for his first State win.  If not, he will likely fold his campaign.  Mississippi could possibly be a place for Cruz to shine, although a second place finish to Trump is most likely.  Idaho and Hawaii also have primaries on Tuesday, but no public polling is available.  Most people will be watching Michigan as the most important contest of the day.

March Madness underway Weekend Primaries March 5-6

We have entered the "March Madness" phase of the primary season.  The majority of delegates will be awarded in March for both parties.  Several States will hold contests each week, with candidates desperately darting from State to State hoping to make their last minute appeals to voters.

This weekend, we will have contests in five states and one territory.  Yes, I've largely ignored non-state primaries so far, but US territories are permitted to vote in Party primaries, even though the citizens of those territories get zero electoral votes in the general election.  This weekend, Puerto Rico votes, along with Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine and Nebraska.  Let's take a closer look at what we can expect:

Republicans

• Kansas will hold its primary caucus on Saturday.  Kansas has scheduled a primary every election year since 1992, and each time has canceled it and decided to hold a caucus instead. The stated reason is that primaries are more expensive and that Kansas usually goes late in the calendar when the candidate is already decided.  This year, however, there is still some question as to the nominee at this stage.  Nevertheless, Kansas has decided to change to a caucus.  It is also closed to party members only.  This will likely benefit Ted Cruz who does better in such contests, to the detriment of Donald Trump, who benefits more from independents and in primaries that take less of a time commitment for voters.  I have seen no published polls for Kansas, but the State tends to favor evangelical candidates, which are breaking mostly for Cruz this year.  This could be a possible win for Cruz.
• Kentucky is also holding a closed caucus on the same day.  A Western Kentucky poll taken a few weeks ago shows Trump leading with Rubio second and Cruz third.  Again, Cruz usually does better in closed caucuses than in the polls and Rubio's star has been fading in the weeks since this poll was taken.  I expect Cruz to beat Rubio in Kentucky despite polling to the contrary.  Getting close to Trump would be impressive, but I still expect a Trump win.
• Louisiana has an open primary.  Again, I have not seen any polls taken in recent months.  Like Kansas, Louisiana tends to favor evangelicals which may benefit Cruz.  Louisiana is also next door neighbor to Cruz's home state of Texas.  Still Cruz has trouble in open primaries.  If he can beat Trump here, it will make him seem more viable.  A Trump victory will mean people will continue to question whether Cruz can ever win an open primary anywhere outside his home state.
• Maine also holds a caucus.  Again, no current polling is public so its hard to handicap.  Maine Republican voters are similar to New Hampshire, which went big for Trump.  This will probably be another Trump victory.
• Sunday March 6 is the Puerto Rico Republican Primary.  This will be an interesting one. Once again, the pollsters have taken a vacation.  There has also been little to no direct campaigning by candidates on the island. Trump has been pretty unpopular with Spanish speaking voters, so I would expect problems for him here.  The island also does not tend to go for doctrinaire conservatives like Cruz.  This may be Rubio's best chance at a win this weekend.

Democrats

Kansas and Louisiana both chose Obama over Clinton in 2008.  This Saturday, Clinton may find a warmer environment.  With no recent polling available, it is hard to guess.  But Clinton has beaten Sanders soundly in more conservative southern States.  Sanders has done better in closed caucuses though, giving him some hope for the closed Kansas caucus.  Kansas is probably his best chance to shine on Saturday. Kentucky Democrats don't vote until May.  Puerto Rico Democrats must wait until June.

The Maine Caucus for Democrats takes place on Sunday.  This New England Caucus may be a good one for Sanders, near his home base of Vermont and next door to his big win in New Hampshire. Sanders should be able to win Maine over Clinton.

Analysis

The conventional wisdom is that winners will keep winning.  Trump and Clinton should expand their respective leads.  Cruz will again be trying to frame the results as showing he is the only alternative to Trump.  Rubio needs to win something to remain viable.  Sanders needs a Kansas win to keep Clinton from significantly widening her lead.

I am writing off Kasich at this point.  Kasich may take a few votes away from others in Maine, but I doubt he will make the 15% required to get any delegates anywhere.

Yesterday, Ben Carson said that he did not see a path to victory at this point and would not participate in the next debate.  While he did not formally suspend his campaign, I'm going to take that as the informal end to his bid for the Presidency and will not include him in my further analyses.