Sunday March 6 Results

Two contests on Sunday finished off an interesting weekend.

The Democrats had their Democratic Caucus.  Sanders beat Clinton by 65% to 35%.  It adds to Sanders' successes in Kansas and Nebraska, but still leaves Clinton with more delegates this weekend after her big victory in Louisiana.

Maine gives continued hope to Sanders supporters that he can continue to chip away and Clinton's lead.  If he can carry the momentum into larger States this Tuesday, it is possible we could see a real match.  But Clinton is favored in both Michigan and Mississippi on Tuesday, which should allow her to pull further away from Sanders.  Clinton is expected to win by 20 points in Michigan and 40 points in Mississippi.  If those predictions come true, Sanders' path to the nomination looks bleak indeed.

Rubio scored his second big win this campaign season with an impressive and overwhelming victory in Puerto Rico, winning all 23 delegates with more than 70% of the vote. Rubio was the only candidate who bothered to campaign on the island, with the others focused more on larger State contests approaching over the next few days.

Rubio's win cuts into Cruz's call to become the sole Trump alternative in the race.  It also takes away from Kasich's attempt to displace Rubio as the Establishment choice against the top two: Trump and Cruz.  Perhaps Trump is the real winner as each of the three opponents divide the anti-Trump opposition.

On Tuesday, Trump is favored in the polls in both Michigan and Mississipi. However, Kasich hopes to do well in Michigan, better than the polls suggest.  If he can, win or at least take a strong second,  he can perhaps carry that momentum into his home State of Ohio for his first State win.  If not, he will likely fold his campaign.  Mississippi could possibly be a place for Cruz to shine, although a second place finish to Trump is most likely.  Idaho and Hawaii also have primaries on Tuesday, but no public polling is available.  Most people will be watching Michigan as the most important contest of the day.

Sat. March 5 Results.

Saturday saw a total of five contests, Kansas, Kentucky, and Louisiana decided for both parties. Maine voted for Republicans only and Nebraska for Democrats only.  Today was a day for rivals to make a bit of a comeback.

Contests this weekend were all closed, meaning that only party members could vote, no independents. Also, four of the five states held caucuses, meaning voters have to spend more time than simply stopping in to vote.  These types of contests tend to benefit the more extreme candidates - hard core conservatives for the Republicans and hard core liberals for the Democrats.  As a result, Ted Cruz and Bernie Sanders had better than average success.

Republicans: 

• The Louisiana Primary was the biggest prize yesterday (47 delegates), and the only primary of the day. Trump (41%) just barely beat Cruz (38%).  As a result, Cruz won 15 delegates to Cruz's 14.  Rubio (11%) and Kasich (6%) both failed to meet the 20% threshold and get nothing.  Some of you math whiz's may have noticed that there are 47 delegates and only 29 awarded.  Because of the odd State allocation rules, the remaining delegates go to the convention "unbound" meaning they can vote for whomever they like.  So even though Rubio and Kasich won not delegates, their participation helped keep the top candidate percentages lower and denied them bound delegates.
• Kentucky Caucus (45 delegates): Trump (36% had another close win over Cruz (32%).  As a result, Trump won 16 delegates to Cruz's 14.  Rubio (16%) took 7 delegates and Kasich (14%) took 6 delegates).  The 2 remaining delegates are unbound.
• Kansas Caucus (40 delegates): Cruz won a solid victory with 48%, as close to 50% as any Republican has gotten this year.  This earned him 24 delegates.  Trump with 23% walks away with 9 delegates.  Because Kansas has a mere 10% threshold, Rubio (17%) picked up 6 delegates and Kasich 11%) picked up 1.  Kansas binds its delegates until released.  This means, that in the event no candidate wins on the first ballot, Kansas delegates must continue to vote for their candidate on subsequent ballots until the candidate releases them. 
• Maine Caucus (23) delegates: Cruz was the big winner with 46% and 12 delegates.  Trump took 33% and 9 delegates.  Kasich (12%) squeaked over the 10% threshold to win 2 delegates, while Rubio (8%) threshold failure  means he gets no delegates.

The big takeaway from yesterday's race is Cruz seems to be solidifying his status as the only viable alternative to Trump.  Cruz's 64 delegates to Trump's 49 narrows Trump's lead a little.  But Cruz has yet to show the same vote getting prowess in open primaries beyond his home State.  He still has a major uphill fight.  Rubio's star seems to be falling.  While these were some tough States for him, his pathetic third and fourth place finishes were not even close to the top two.  Voters who once thought he could be the anti-Trump seem to be giving up on him.  Kasich remains at best a spoiler.

Democrats

• Louisiana Primary (58 delegates) Clinton won the largest prize of the night overwhelmingly with 71% to Sanders 23%, netting her 35 delegates to Sanders' 10 (13 delegates remain unbound).
• Kansas Caucus (45 delegates) Sanders (68%) won nearly just as decisive a win in Kansas over Clinton (32%) giving him 23 delegates to Clinton's 10 (2 unbound).
• Nebraska Caucus (30 delegates) saw a slightly less robust victory for Sanders (56%) over Clinton (44%) giving Sanders 14 delegates to Clinton's 10 (2 unbound).

Clinton won the delegate count for the day, netting 55 delegates, while Sanders picked up 47.  But the press will focus on Sanders winning two States to Clinton's one, questioning whether Sanders really is down and out.

Looking Ahead

Later today Puerto Rico will hold its Repubilican primary and Main will hold its Democratic Caucus. If Rubio does well in Puerto Rico, it can offset his "loser" label going into Michigan later this week. If Sanders can win in Maine, it will help his "comeback" narrative going into Michigan.

Michigan (Tuesday 3/8) may be Kasich's last stand.  If Trump defeats him there as expected, Kasich may drop out before his home State of Ohio votes on March 15.  Because Ohio is a winner take all state, Kasich may not want to divide the anti-Trump vote there.  If he drops out and endorses another Candidate, it may change the math for the State, which currently is looking like a Trump victory.  On the other hand, if Kasich can beat Trump in Michigan (as some polls now suggest) Ohio voters may be more confident in support him the following week.  This could give Kasich a good block of votes for a divided convention.  It may also allow him to supplant Rubio as the establishment favorite against Trump and Cruz.  Even this optimistic scenario is a long shot for Kasich, but it may give his campaign a sliver of hope.

March Madness underway Weekend Primaries March 5-6

We have entered the "March Madness" phase of the primary season.  The majority of delegates will be awarded in March for both parties.  Several States will hold contests each week, with candidates desperately darting from State to State hoping to make their last minute appeals to voters.

This weekend, we will have contests in five states and one territory.  Yes, I've largely ignored non-state primaries so far, but US territories are permitted to vote in Party primaries, even though the citizens of those territories get zero electoral votes in the general election.  This weekend, Puerto Rico votes, along with Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine and Nebraska.  Let's take a closer look at what we can expect:

Republicans

• Kansas will hold its primary caucus on Saturday.  Kansas has scheduled a primary every election year since 1992, and each time has canceled it and decided to hold a caucus instead. The stated reason is that primaries are more expensive and that Kansas usually goes late in the calendar when the candidate is already decided.  This year, however, there is still some question as to the nominee at this stage.  Nevertheless, Kansas has decided to change to a caucus.  It is also closed to party members only.  This will likely benefit Ted Cruz who does better in such contests, to the detriment of Donald Trump, who benefits more from independents and in primaries that take less of a time commitment for voters.  I have seen no published polls for Kansas, but the State tends to favor evangelical candidates, which are breaking mostly for Cruz this year.  This could be a possible win for Cruz.
• Kentucky is also holding a closed caucus on the same day.  A Western Kentucky poll taken a few weeks ago shows Trump leading with Rubio second and Cruz third.  Again, Cruz usually does better in closed caucuses than in the polls and Rubio's star has been fading in the weeks since this poll was taken.  I expect Cruz to beat Rubio in Kentucky despite polling to the contrary.  Getting close to Trump would be impressive, but I still expect a Trump win.
• Louisiana has an open primary.  Again, I have not seen any polls taken in recent months.  Like Kansas, Louisiana tends to favor evangelicals which may benefit Cruz.  Louisiana is also next door neighbor to Cruz's home state of Texas.  Still Cruz has trouble in open primaries.  If he can beat Trump here, it will make him seem more viable.  A Trump victory will mean people will continue to question whether Cruz can ever win an open primary anywhere outside his home state.
• Maine also holds a caucus.  Again, no current polling is public so its hard to handicap.  Maine Republican voters are similar to New Hampshire, which went big for Trump.  This will probably be another Trump victory.
• Sunday March 6 is the Puerto Rico Republican Primary.  This will be an interesting one. Once again, the pollsters have taken a vacation.  There has also been little to no direct campaigning by candidates on the island. Trump has been pretty unpopular with Spanish speaking voters, so I would expect problems for him here.  The island also does not tend to go for doctrinaire conservatives like Cruz.  This may be Rubio's best chance at a win this weekend.

Democrats

Kansas and Louisiana both chose Obama over Clinton in 2008.  This Saturday, Clinton may find a warmer environment.  With no recent polling available, it is hard to guess.  But Clinton has beaten Sanders soundly in more conservative southern States.  Sanders has done better in closed caucuses though, giving him some hope for the closed Kansas caucus.  Kansas is probably his best chance to shine on Saturday. Kentucky Democrats don't vote until May.  Puerto Rico Democrats must wait until June.

The Maine Caucus for Democrats takes place on Sunday.  This New England Caucus may be a good one for Sanders, near his home base of Vermont and next door to his big win in New Hampshire. Sanders should be able to win Maine over Clinton.

Analysis

The conventional wisdom is that winners will keep winning.  Trump and Clinton should expand their respective leads.  Cruz will again be trying to frame the results as showing he is the only alternative to Trump.  Rubio needs to win something to remain viable.  Sanders needs a Kansas win to keep Clinton from significantly widening her lead.

I am writing off Kasich at this point.  Kasich may take a few votes away from others in Maine, but I doubt he will make the 15% required to get any delegates anywhere.

Yesterday, Ben Carson said that he did not see a path to victory at this point and would not participate in the next debate.  While he did not formally suspend his campaign, I'm going to take that as the informal end to his bid for the Presidency and will not include him in my further analyses.