Both parties held contests in Utah and Arizona. There was also a Democratic Caucus in Idaho.
As expected, Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump won their respective party's contests in Arizona by significant Margin. Trump wins a winner take all in Arizona. Clinton, of course, must share her delegates proportionally with Sanders.
Ted Cruz landed a big win in Utah. Although it does not have as many delegates as Arizona, Cruz gets a winner take all win because he got over 50% of the vote. A late poll showed John Kasich coming on strong in Utah, but it appears that poll was just wrong. It looks like he has beaten Trump but just barely. From a delegate perspective it does not matter as the 2nd and 3rd place finishers both get no delegates. Kasich's poor showing, even in relatively unfriendly states, will increase calls for him to withdraw. That is unlikely as Kasich will be hoping for better results in future contests on east and west coasts as well as a few more in the mid-west. If he does poorly in Wisconsin in two weeks, you may hear those calls to go grow louder.
Bernie Sanders won big wins in Utah and Idaho. Again, neither is as big as Arizona, so not as many delegates at stake. Sanders, who was expected to pull out a relatively close fight was able to push turn out in massive numbers leading to much larger wins in Utah and Idaho, both by over 75%.. Because Democratic contests are still proportional, a big win allows Sanders to collect more delegates than a close win. Sanders supporters remain much more motivated, giving Sanders increased support in caucuses over primaries. As a result, Sanders will pick up a larger percentage of delegates in those States. Overall, it looks like the candidates will probably divide the total delegates of all three States about evenly.
Coming out of these contests, each candidate has a unique spin.
Donald Trump's line will be that he won the most votes for the night and continues to widen his lead over the others. He will continue to argue he is the clear choice. Yes, Cruz won a closed caucus on a highly conservative State, but there there are few more contests like that on the calendar.
Ted Cruz will point out that he is the only serious challenger to Trump, that he can take States away from the winner. Anti-Trump forces should stop dividing their efforts and focus on helping him win more upcoming States.
John Kasich will continue to argue for relevance. The next Republican contest is Wisconsin in two weeks. This is an open primary in a more moderate mid-west State. It is Ohio's next door neighbor. It will be the first favorable State for Kasich in a three person race. He really has to win there to remain relevant. If he divides the vote and allows Trump to take all the delegates with a plurality, you will hear screams for him to leave the race and allow the race to become a two person race. Even if he does, Cruz does not appear to have much of a shot of winning even in a two person race in the mostly mid-Atlantic and west coast States remaining.
Hillary Clinton will argue inevitability and focus on her existing massive delegate lead. She would point out that Utah and Idaho were relatively small mostly white States with closed caucuses, which tend to benefit Sanders, who tends to lose the larger States with open primaries.
Bernie Sanders will argue the tables are turning, that Clinton did well in southern States with large black populations and those are almost completely done. Sanders has a few more States upcoming with closed caucuses in largely white States. If he can rack up similar big wins in upcoming Alaska, Hawaii and Washington caucuses, he may have momentum to carry him into Wisconsin and the mid-Atlantic primaries that follow.
Large voter turnout continues to surprise analysts. This seems to benefit Sanders who is finding motivated activists who will turn out and fight for him in the typically lightly attended caucuses. The increased turnout is not usually enough to win larger primaries. On the Republican side, larger turn out has largely been credited to new Trump supporters. Utah, however, seemed to show large turn out for Cruz. Apparently, people are sufficiently afraid of a Trump victory to turn out in large numbers against him as well.
Showing posts with label Utah Caucus. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Utah Caucus. Show all posts
Wednesday, March 23, 2016
Tuesday, March 22, 2016
March 22 - Arizona and Utah (and Idaho and American Samoa)
This week, there are two contests for both parties: the Utah Caucus and the Arizona Primary. Both are fairly conservative solidly Republican states. Idaho is also holding its Democratic Caucus, the Republican contest being several weeks ago. American Samoa is holding its Republican Convention.
Republicans:
Utah is looking good for Ted Cruz. He has performed particularly well in closed caucuses in very conservative states. On top of that, Mitt Romney, the most famous Mormon politician in the country, has announced he will be voting for Cruz. This may be the first time Cruz wins an outright majority, over 50% of the State. Even more surprising, Kasich is running a solid second in the polls after taking on most of Rubio's supporters, with Trump's numbers crashing in recent weeks. Winning 50% is important since under State rules, it will give all 40 delegates to Cruz. Otherwise, delegates are distributed proportionally to any candidate getting over 15%.
This raises an interested challenge for Kasich and Trump. They will try to keep Cruz below 50%. Trump is also struggling to meet the 15% threshold. Kasich's best case is keeping Cruz below 50% and Trump below 15%. It would allow Kasich to collect a respectable number of delegates and freeze out front runner Trump entirely. Cruz, of course is pushing for a 50% win. He would probably also like to see Trump do better than Kasich since he is trying to ignore Kasich and make this a two person race.
For his part, Trump has been focusing on the Arizona Primary. He has held a few rallies in Utah, presumably trying to stay above the 15% threshold and keep Cruz from reaching 50%. But beyond that, he is looking at Arizona. He leads Cruz by a good 10 points or more in most polls and Kasich trails badly. Arizona is a winner take all State with 58 delegates. Even it Trump gets zero delegates in Utah, if he wins Arizona, he collects the most delegates for the day. A few delegates are awarded based on winning a congressional district, so a handful could possibly go to another candidate. Both Cruz, and Kasich, however, seem to have conceded Arizona to Trump and are focused more on Utah.
American Samoa also holds its Convention on Tuesday, selecting nine delegates for the Republican convention. These delegates are not bound, so no results to report. But keep in mind these various unbound delegates make it harder for Trump to reach the magical 50% of bound delegates at the convention. On the other hand, these are wild card delegates who could support Trump on the first ballot and put him over the 50% mark even without enough bound delegates.
Democrats:
Hillary Clinton has been a good 25-30 points above Bernie Sanders in Arizona. Clinton has played well with retirees, and Arizona is full of them. She expects an easy win there.
The Utah Caucus is more up in the air. It is likely to be close, with polls differing on who will win. Sanders could pull a win here as he tends to do better in closed caucuses. Even though Utah is a conservative State, its registered Democrats tend to be middle class and white, groups that have tended to favor Sanders. Since delegates are awarded proportionally, it does not matter much who wins, as it will only affect a couple of delegates. But if Sanders pulls off a win, it gives him bragging rights for future contests.
Idaho Democrats also hold their closed caucus on Tuesday. Again, this is a close one. Again, Sanders tends to do better in closed caucuses, especially in States without significant numbers of minorities. This could be a Sanders win as well.
Even though Clinton will win the most delegates for the day, if Sanders can win two of the three contests, it will help to continue his justification for continuing his campaign.
Analysis:
None of these contests will be particularly decisive and probably will not result in any more drop outs. They are the last Republican contests for two weeks, so candidate would love to two weeks of coverage of wins for their campaigns. Since the results will be mixed, we should not see any real theme coming from these contests. Candidate will continue to slog it out and move on the the remaining States.
Republicans:
Utah is looking good for Ted Cruz. He has performed particularly well in closed caucuses in very conservative states. On top of that, Mitt Romney, the most famous Mormon politician in the country, has announced he will be voting for Cruz. This may be the first time Cruz wins an outright majority, over 50% of the State. Even more surprising, Kasich is running a solid second in the polls after taking on most of Rubio's supporters, with Trump's numbers crashing in recent weeks. Winning 50% is important since under State rules, it will give all 40 delegates to Cruz. Otherwise, delegates are distributed proportionally to any candidate getting over 15%.
This raises an interested challenge for Kasich and Trump. They will try to keep Cruz below 50%. Trump is also struggling to meet the 15% threshold. Kasich's best case is keeping Cruz below 50% and Trump below 15%. It would allow Kasich to collect a respectable number of delegates and freeze out front runner Trump entirely. Cruz, of course is pushing for a 50% win. He would probably also like to see Trump do better than Kasich since he is trying to ignore Kasich and make this a two person race.
For his part, Trump has been focusing on the Arizona Primary. He has held a few rallies in Utah, presumably trying to stay above the 15% threshold and keep Cruz from reaching 50%. But beyond that, he is looking at Arizona. He leads Cruz by a good 10 points or more in most polls and Kasich trails badly. Arizona is a winner take all State with 58 delegates. Even it Trump gets zero delegates in Utah, if he wins Arizona, he collects the most delegates for the day. A few delegates are awarded based on winning a congressional district, so a handful could possibly go to another candidate. Both Cruz, and Kasich, however, seem to have conceded Arizona to Trump and are focused more on Utah.
American Samoa also holds its Convention on Tuesday, selecting nine delegates for the Republican convention. These delegates are not bound, so no results to report. But keep in mind these various unbound delegates make it harder for Trump to reach the magical 50% of bound delegates at the convention. On the other hand, these are wild card delegates who could support Trump on the first ballot and put him over the 50% mark even without enough bound delegates.
Democrats:
Hillary Clinton has been a good 25-30 points above Bernie Sanders in Arizona. Clinton has played well with retirees, and Arizona is full of them. She expects an easy win there.
The Utah Caucus is more up in the air. It is likely to be close, with polls differing on who will win. Sanders could pull a win here as he tends to do better in closed caucuses. Even though Utah is a conservative State, its registered Democrats tend to be middle class and white, groups that have tended to favor Sanders. Since delegates are awarded proportionally, it does not matter much who wins, as it will only affect a couple of delegates. But if Sanders pulls off a win, it gives him bragging rights for future contests.
Idaho Democrats also hold their closed caucus on Tuesday. Again, this is a close one. Again, Sanders tends to do better in closed caucuses, especially in States without significant numbers of minorities. This could be a Sanders win as well.
Even though Clinton will win the most delegates for the day, if Sanders can win two of the three contests, it will help to continue his justification for continuing his campaign.
Analysis:
None of these contests will be particularly decisive and probably will not result in any more drop outs. They are the last Republican contests for two weeks, so candidate would love to two weeks of coverage of wins for their campaigns. Since the results will be mixed, we should not see any real theme coming from these contests. Candidate will continue to slog it out and move on the the remaining States.
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