Big Wins for Frontrunners in NY

Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump both won big in their home state of NY.  While both were expected to win, the size of the victory, especially Trump's took many  by surprise.

Republicans

Trump dominated NY with over 60% of the vote.  Delegates would have been awarded proportionally if his two opponents could have kept him below 50%.  That was not even close though.  Trump also won more than 50% in almost all the Congressional districts, giving him all of those delegates as well.  In total, Trump has one at least 89 of the 95 delegates.  Kasich, with a strong showing in NYC, picked up at least three delegates.  Cruz left with a big goose egg, nothing.  Cruz seemed to have seen the writing on the wall and began turning his attention to other states a few days ago.

After yesterday's win, Trump has 845 delegates.  He needs 1237 for a majority at the convention. There are only 734 still available, so Trump still needs to win a majority of all outstanding delegates in order to collect another 392 to clinch the nomination on the first vote.  It remains possible but difficult.

Cruz, who had a good run in some smaller conservative caucus states in the middle of the country, is looking much weaker on the east coast.  This third place finish behind Kasich takes away from the idea that his is the only choice for the anti-Trump crowd.  For Kasich though, a said second place finish is probably too little too late.

Next week, we see another five mid-Atlantic States, Pennsylvania and Maryland being the largest. Trump's polls indicate a win for him next week as well.  A Trump nomination on the first ballot still remains within reach.

Democrats

Hillary Clinton defeated Bernie Sanders by a good 15 points.  Even a tie or small win for Sanders in NY would have made his delegate math more difficult.  While it is still mathematically possible for Sanders to win, something really drastic would need to change.

Including Superdelegates, Clinton has 1930 of the 2382 needed to win.  With 1646 still up for grabs in future contests, Clinton needs a mere 28% of the remaining delegates for her majority.  In other words, Sanders would need to win more than 70% of the vote in every remaining State.  With Clinton ahead in most remaining State polls, that seems highly unlikely.  Still, Clinton will likely have to wait until the California Primary in June before she can claim the needed majority of delegates to put her over the top.

Looking Ahead:

Next week, five States hold primaries: Pennsylvania, Maryland, Connecticut, Delaware, and Rhode Island.  Expected results in those States will probably be similar to NY, although the wins might be a little closer.  Trump will be focused on getting over 50% to take advantage of winner take all provisions.  That will be the main question in these contests.

Candidates in a New York State of Mind

With nearly two weeks of inactivity before the New York primary, and nearly a month since the last real contest of any size, candidates have had lots of time to campaign in this large state full of delegates.

Three candidates can claim some personal attachment to the State.  Bernie Sanders was born and grew up in the Bronx.  Hillary Clinton served as a Senator for about eight years.  Donald Trump has lived and worked in New York for much of his life.  Ted Cruz has no real attachment and has also incurred the wrath of New York voters by derisively accusing Trump of having "New York values" earlier in the campaign.  Then, there is John Kasich.  Is anyone even still talking about him?

New York is a proportional State for Republicans.  This means all candidates will likely get some delegates based on performance.  As a result, it is tough for the State to be a real game changer, but will continue the ongoing fistfight for every single delegate.  The State holds a closed primary, meaning only Republicans can vote in the Republican primary and only Democrats can vote in their primary.  Independents get to stay home.  The time to change your party was six months ago, so "troublemakers" cannot cross party lines to vote, unless they planned far in advance.

Closed primaries have tended to favor Cruz over Trump.  But that also tended to be in more doctrinaire Republican States or in such liberal States that Republican voters made up a small doctrinaire minority.  New York has a thriving and relatively moderate Republican party, which has produced leaders that tend to be relatively liberal by Republican standards, e.g. Rudy Giuliani, Michael Bloomberg, and George Pataki.

For the Republicans, Trump has solid support in the State and is expected to win over 50% of the vote.  It is an extremely weak State for Cruz, who may finish third behind Kasich.  Cruz and Kasich both hope simply to minimize the number of delegates that Trump does get and move on to friendlier states.  Trump his hoping for a stronger than expected win.  Otherwise, he may go into the convention without the absolute majority he needs for a win on the first ballot.

On the Democratic side, Clinton remains the 10-15 point favorite over Sanders.  Clinton remains on track to win a majority of delegates, despite Sanders' surprising support.  Sanders currently would need to win more than 2/3 of all remaining delegates.  Failure to win, and even a bare win in New York would not do much for Sanders' chances.  Because Sanders has won a string of smaller State Caucuses, Clinton is counting on a solid win here to crush the spirits of the remaining Sanders supporters.  It will be the end of the Sanders momentum story as the campaign swings into a bunch of other races in mid-Atlantic States the following week.

Therefore, expect New York to be relatively good news for both front-runners, Trump and Clinton.  But still no knock out blows expected.