Guam held its contest on Saturday. I cannot even get agreement from media sources as to whether it was a primary or caucus. Some news sources called it a primary, others a caucus. It was listed on the calendars as a primary, but very often, jurisdictions will change to a caucus at the last minute to save money. A caucus does not have to have all the polling areas open.
According to one source I read, there was only one polling station in all of Guam open for voting. It was located at the "Agana Shopping Center (2nd Floor)". Whether that was it or not reports are that about 1300 Democrats voted in the contest. Clinton took about 60% to Sanders 40%. Of the seven pledged delegates at issue in the contest, Clinton won 4, Sanders 3. Clinton had already secured the support of all five superdelegates from Guam. Therefore, she should get a total of nine votes from the territory on the first ballot.
Neither candidate visited Guam, nor did anyone seem to spend much money there. With so few delegates at stake, it was not worth the money for either campaign to work hard and perhaps get one more delegate.
Clinton's victory increases her delegate lead by one. That hardly seems to matter at this point. The win does ensure that Sanders will not get "X wins in a row" after his Indiana victory. Otherwise, with Clinton facing hostile voters in West Virginia, Kentucky, and Oregon over the next two weeks, Sanders might have started another winning streak with Indiana.
Clinton's victory also means Sanders cannot pursue his long shot plan to convince superdelegates to switch to him if he wins their jurisdiction. That was not likely to happen anyway, but Guam superdelegates can at least say the voters have reinforced their decision to support Clinton. At this stage, even if Sanders wins 100% of the remaining pledged delegates, he still loses unless he can also convince superdelegates to change sides.
I was surprised that today (Monday afternoon) two days after the voting took place, most news organizations had not even bothered to update the results on their web sites. With so many contests updated as the count went on minute by minute, one would think they could at least publish the final results relatively soon after they were available.
Most media organizations are turning to the Clinton-Trump contest that seems inevitable now. Remaining primary outcomes will not change that result.
That said, I will continue to post and comment on the results here, even while I start to join in the general election punditry as well.
Showing posts with label Guam primary. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Guam primary. Show all posts
Monday, May 9, 2016
Friday, May 6, 2016
The May Primary Calendar.
With the Republican race now uncontested and the Democratic race all but over, the remaining contests have become less interesting. Candidates will start talking more about their general election opponents and possibly consider their Vice Presidential running mates. Still, with neither front runner holding a majority of delegates yet, the remaining races cannot be taken for granted completely. Candidates must continue to address the remaining contests and collect their delegates.
Guam, Sat. May 7
This Saturday is Guam's Democratic Primary. The Republicans had their contest weeks ago, selecting unbound delegates who added to no one's count.
I have seen no polls for Guam. In 2008 the territory handed a close victory Barack Obama by less than a point, and with fewer than 5000 people voting. In 2012, an incumbent Obama one only 58% of the vote, with the remainder uncommitted. Therefore, the smart money is on a close election result this year as well. With a mere 12 delegates up for grabs, if one candidate gets 7 or 8 and the other gets 4 or 5, it will be barely noticeable. Therefore, both Democratic candidates are not terribly focused on this contest far away across the Pacific Ocean.
Nebraska & West Virginia, Tue. May 10
Nebraska and West Virginia both hold closed Republican primaries next Tuesday. With Trump now uncontested, he should have no trouble taking Nebraska's 36 delegates and West Virginia's 34. Assuming he wins all 70, he should be about 115 votes short of his inevitable delegate majority.
On the Democratic side, Hillary is again on the rope thanks to her a few weeks ago about putting lots of coal miners out of work. Rather than worry about losing the State, Clinton should be more concerned about being lynched if caught in the State by locals. Expect these conservative Democrats to give the Socialist Sanders a solid victory, perhaps by 20 points. Again, not enough to threaten Clinton's majority, but another embarrassing defeat for her campaign.
Kentucky & Oregon, Tue. May 17
Kentucky holds its Democratic Primary on May 17. Hillary has tended to do well in conservative states. However, her comments about coal miners has pretty much handed the contest to Sanders, aka, anyone but Hillary. This very conservative State will vote for the Socialist, probably by double digits. Sanders will chalk up another victory and take a majority of the 61 delegates. But Hillary will take a sizable minority share of them and creep ever closer to her inevitable delegate majority.
Oregon also holds its primary for both parties. This liberal enclave is somewhere that Sanders is likely to do well, not just as the anti-Clinton but because voters actually like his socialist policies. I have not seen any polls for Oregon, but expect a Sanders double digit victory, taking the bulk of the 73 delegates. Again, it is too little too late to derail Clinton's ultimate victory. It will, however, contribute to the perception that she is not popular, even within her own party and has a great deal of work to do.
On the Republican side, Oregon is a more liberal state where Kasich had hoped to do well. Trump however, was looking for a win even before his opponents capitulated. Oregon awards its 28 delegates proportionally. It is possible that some voters may vote for opponents who are still on the ballot. Trump may not win all of the delegates even without active campaigns against him. This contest will be worth watching only to see how big Trump's victory will be, and whether he can continue to turn out large and enthusiastic crowds as the presumptive nominee rather than an outside challenger.
Washington Tue. May 24
A week later, we will have our final May contest in Washington State, the Republican primary. Again, not much of a contest since Trump anymore as Trump continues to acquire his needed delegate majority. There are 44 proportional delegates up for grabs. Even assuming Trump wins all of then, not guaranteed, he will still be about 40 votes short of a majority.
Looking Ahead to June:
There are a couple of minor caucuses for Democrats on the first weekend in June (Virgin Island and Puerto Rico). But all eyes are on June 7, when California, New Jersey, New Mexico, Montana, and both Dakotas all hold contests. It will likely be on this date that both Clinton and Trump officially obtain their delegate majorities. After that, only DC holds its Democratic primary a week later, when no one will care. That will bring the primary season to its official end.
Guam, Sat. May 7
This Saturday is Guam's Democratic Primary. The Republicans had their contest weeks ago, selecting unbound delegates who added to no one's count.
I have seen no polls for Guam. In 2008 the territory handed a close victory Barack Obama by less than a point, and with fewer than 5000 people voting. In 2012, an incumbent Obama one only 58% of the vote, with the remainder uncommitted. Therefore, the smart money is on a close election result this year as well. With a mere 12 delegates up for grabs, if one candidate gets 7 or 8 and the other gets 4 or 5, it will be barely noticeable. Therefore, both Democratic candidates are not terribly focused on this contest far away across the Pacific Ocean.
Nebraska & West Virginia, Tue. May 10
Nebraska and West Virginia both hold closed Republican primaries next Tuesday. With Trump now uncontested, he should have no trouble taking Nebraska's 36 delegates and West Virginia's 34. Assuming he wins all 70, he should be about 115 votes short of his inevitable delegate majority.
On the Democratic side, Hillary is again on the rope thanks to her a few weeks ago about putting lots of coal miners out of work. Rather than worry about losing the State, Clinton should be more concerned about being lynched if caught in the State by locals. Expect these conservative Democrats to give the Socialist Sanders a solid victory, perhaps by 20 points. Again, not enough to threaten Clinton's majority, but another embarrassing defeat for her campaign.
Kentucky & Oregon, Tue. May 17
Kentucky holds its Democratic Primary on May 17. Hillary has tended to do well in conservative states. However, her comments about coal miners has pretty much handed the contest to Sanders, aka, anyone but Hillary. This very conservative State will vote for the Socialist, probably by double digits. Sanders will chalk up another victory and take a majority of the 61 delegates. But Hillary will take a sizable minority share of them and creep ever closer to her inevitable delegate majority.
Oregon also holds its primary for both parties. This liberal enclave is somewhere that Sanders is likely to do well, not just as the anti-Clinton but because voters actually like his socialist policies. I have not seen any polls for Oregon, but expect a Sanders double digit victory, taking the bulk of the 73 delegates. Again, it is too little too late to derail Clinton's ultimate victory. It will, however, contribute to the perception that she is not popular, even within her own party and has a great deal of work to do.
On the Republican side, Oregon is a more liberal state where Kasich had hoped to do well. Trump however, was looking for a win even before his opponents capitulated. Oregon awards its 28 delegates proportionally. It is possible that some voters may vote for opponents who are still on the ballot. Trump may not win all of the delegates even without active campaigns against him. This contest will be worth watching only to see how big Trump's victory will be, and whether he can continue to turn out large and enthusiastic crowds as the presumptive nominee rather than an outside challenger.
Washington Tue. May 24
A week later, we will have our final May contest in Washington State, the Republican primary. Again, not much of a contest since Trump anymore as Trump continues to acquire his needed delegate majority. There are 44 proportional delegates up for grabs. Even assuming Trump wins all of then, not guaranteed, he will still be about 40 votes short of a majority.
Looking Ahead to June:
There are a couple of minor caucuses for Democrats on the first weekend in June (Virgin Island and Puerto Rico). But all eyes are on June 7, when California, New Jersey, New Mexico, Montana, and both Dakotas all hold contests. It will likely be on this date that both Clinton and Trump officially obtain their delegate majorities. After that, only DC holds its Democratic primary a week later, when no one will care. That will bring the primary season to its official end.
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