Saturday March 12 Results

Saturday March 12, saw a few minor contests.  With all eyes on Last Stand Tuesday this week, these contests have gone largely ignored.  Delegates are delegates and these contests awarded a few.

Washington, DC Republican Caucus was the largest contest of the day with 19 delegates up for grabs.  This highly Democratic district saw a Republican turn out of of less than 3000 voters.  Rubio was the big winner with 37.3%, collecting 10 delegates.  Kasich was a close second with 35.5% and 9 delegates.  Trump (13.8%) and Cruz (12.4%) received no delegates.

Wyoming also held a Caucus with 12 delegates up for grabs.  Wyoming actually has 29 delegates at the Convention, but most of these will be selected at the State Convention next month.  Of the 12 awarded at the Caucus, Cruz won overwhelmingly with 66.3% of the vote and collected 9 delegates.  Rubio finished a distant second with 19.5% and collected 1 delegate.. Cruz with 7.2% also won one delegate while Kasich literally received 0 votes.  Not just a few votes that rounded down to 0%.  Not a single person in the entire State voted for Kasich!  Less than 1000 people voted total in this tiny caucus, but still not one vote?

Guam also held a Republican Caucus on Saturday.  A mere 350 people attended, and the exact vote totals were not released.  Cruz was said to have won the Caucus.  However, all 9 delegates go to the Convention uncommitted, so no change in delegate counts for the candidates.  This only adds a few more wild cards in the event of a divided convention.

On the Democrat site, the Northern Mariana Islands held its first territorial Caucus ever.  Clinton won only 102 votes, but that was enough for a 54% victory in this tiny contest, to Sanders' 34%, the remainder voted for "uncommitted".  Clinton collected 4 delegates, which she added to the 1 Super Delegate from the islands who had already committed to Clinton.  Sanders collected 2 delegates.

Analysis:

No real surprises in any of these contests since there were little expectations.  Trump and Cruz seem highly unpopular among DC Republicans, who tend to be overwhelmingly establishment.  Cruz did well in another closed primary in the highly conservative State of Wyoming.  Rubio still seems to be doing better than Kasich, despite the fact that Kasich's star seemed to be rising in recent weeks while Rubio's was falling.  This may be relevant if only one of those two drop out after last stand Tuesday. But as I have said earlier, that will more likely be the result of how each does in his home state.

Clinton's tiny win in a jurisdiction visited by neither candidate does not say much.  Since Clinton has a pledged super delegate on the islands, that probably gave her some increased advocacy.  Both candidates remain focused on next Tuesday, when the number of delegates at stake make the numbers from yesterday look like a rounding error.

Saturday March 12 Contests

This Saturday, there will be a few minor contests that will go largely unnoticed.  They will only deliver a handful of delegates.

DC Republicans will hold their caucus this Saturday, March 12.  They can probably meet around a table in a Georgetown restaurant, and not even have push several together.  Seriously, this is a small group.  DC is only about 6% Republican.  It has never elected a Republican to district wide office and is one of only two jurisdictions to vote for a Democratic President in the 1984 Reagan landslide.  Nevertheless, they will award 19 delegates to attend the Republican convention, making them the biggest contest on Saturday.

Guam will hold its Republican convention on Saturday March 12 where it will select nine delegates. These delegates will be unbound, meaning they can vote for whomever they like at the national convention. Therefore, anything decided on Saturday will not have any impact on the race for now.

Democrats will also be active with their Northern Marianas Caucus on Saturday, awarding a whopping 11 to the Democratic Convention.

I have not seen any polling for any of these jurisdictions.  DC is decidedly establishment and will likely oppose Trump.  Cruz may find a win in DC, but this is really just a guess absent any polling. Since Guam does not bind its delegates, any results released are largely irrelevant to the ongoing delegate fight.   Northern Marianas has already had one super delegate pledge to Clinton, so perhaps that is an indication of Clinton popularity on the islands.

Candidates, however, are largely ignoring these minor contests and looking toward the much larger ones next Tuesday.  I plan to discuss those much more important events in tomorrow's post.