President-Elect Biden

 With the vote counting now nearly complete, the press has called Pennsylvania for Biden.  This gives him sufficient electoral votes to win the presidency.  If the current counts prove correct, Biden will have flipped all three critical midwestern states that traditionally go Democrat but which Trump took in 2016: Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. (ok, traditionally Pennsylvania is not considered "midwest" but for purposes of voter sentiment in this election, it is).  Biden also flipped Arizona and eked out the narrowest of victories in Georgia.  

Trump has refused to concede, citing claims of voter fraud or other voting irregularities.  Several critical states were won very narrowly. At current count Biden has won the following states by narrow margins.

• Georgia, 10,000 (0.2%)
• Pennsylvania, 37000 (0.5%)
• Arizona, 19,000 (0.6%) 
• Wisconsin, 20,000 (0.6%)
• Nevada, 27,000 (2.1%)
• Michigan 148,000 (2.7%)

Trump would have to win challenges in at least three of these states in order to win the electoral college.  Wisconsin, for example allows for a recount request if the margin is under 1%.  However, the challenging campaign has to pay for the recount if the margin is above 0.25%.  The Trump campaign is trying to raise funds from supporters for this purpose.  In 2016, Green party candidate demanded a recount in Wisconsin, which changed the vote total by only 136 votes.  In other words, the odds of finding thousands of incorrect votes in order to change the outcome, and achieving that in three different states is a virtually impossible effort.

Trump is also trying to challenge votes in some states, attempting to have votes thrown out by the courts.  For example, some states extended deadlines for the receipt of mail in ballots in response to accusations that the post office was not delivering those ballots before the deadline.  Other states made changes to voting procedures to allow for absentee voting that deviated from state law requirements, in order to accommodate health concerns of voters and poll workers. 

It is conceivable that a court could throw out sufficient votes to alter the results.  However, courts typically do not overrule state decision not to disenfranchise voters for technical ballot or timing issues unless there is proof that the legal deviation were intentionally designed to benefit one candidate over another.  There does not appear to be any evidence of such activity in this election.

The likely outcome of all of these court cases and recount challenges is that there will be no change in the current results.  The president may complain and his supporters may protest in the streets, but any actual change from these efforts seems rather far fetched.  

Perhaps a partisan governor might opt to push through an electoral slate from the losing side based on claims of fraud, even if baseless.  Such a maneuver would probably require a Republican governor and Republican majorities in the state legislature.  Only Arizona and Georgia fall into that category. Wisconsin Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Nevada all have Democratic governors.  Therefore, even such an extraordinary change in Arizona and Georgia would not give Trump enough electoral votes to remain in office.

Because Biden appears to have a solid three state lead in the electoral college, and because the winning margin in all of the closest states is in the tens of thousands of votes, Biden's victory seems secure.

Incidentally, as a follow up to my voting predictions the week before the election, with Georgia and Pennsylvania having flipped in late vote counting.  My predictions were correct in 48 States.  Only Florida and North Carolina went for Trump when I predicted Biden victories.

Maybe President-Elect Biden

It is now three days after the election day and there still is no final result.  News organizations are tentatively calling the election for Biden, but with several close states still in dispute.  Conventional wisdom, as I write this in the early morning of Friday 11/6, is that Biden has won the election with about one state to spare.

Days before the election, I predicted, primarily based on polling, that these would be the results, other than that I also predicted Biden would win Florida, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania.  Trump, in fact, once again greatly improved his results beyond what the polls predicted, but not quite enough to win reelection.

The biggest surprise for me was Trump's second win in Pennsylvania.  This has been a traditionally blue state which, before Trump, had not supported a Republican presidential candidate in the prior six elections, over a quarter of a century.

Polling Inaccuracies

In a close election such as this, I would have predicted, as the polls indicated, that Trump would win Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada before he would win Pennsylvania.  That was not the case.  If the tentative results are confirmed, it was Biden's ability to hang onto Nevada, as well as flipping Arizona, Wisconsin, and Michigan that gave him the victory.  An razor thin Biden win in Georgia is icing on the cake for Biden, but not crucial to the outcome.

Pundits will debate for years why the polling was wrong once again.  Clearly it was.  However, until there are more detailed statistics about who voted and why, we can't say whether the error was a problem with predictions in the demographic makeup of the turnout, or simply an inability to get a truly random sample of honest answers to polling questions.

I had thought that a higher turnout would benefit the Democrats more than it did.  While it did flip a few crucial states, it did not have the impact that most experts thought.

That said, there are still questions about some state outcomes.  Trump is questioning the results in Arizona, Wisconsin, and Michigan.  Whether legal efforts or claims of fraud will change any outcomes remains to be seen.  However, a narrow Biden victory appears to be the final result.

While Biden appears to have won, it is far from the mandate that Democrats had wanted.  Democrats lost several key Senate races, which appears to ensure that Republicans will maintain a Senate majority.  Democrats also lost several House seats.  These were mostly districts that were traditionally Republican, but where Democrats had won during the surge of 2018 elections.  Democrats will retain a slimmer House majority.  That leaves a divided government, with neither side able to implement much in the way of new policy.

Trump's loss can be attributed to the fact that he won several critical states in 2016 by only a few thousand votes. Those states turned, mostly due to increased turnout.  Although Trump received more votes in most states than he did in 2016, Biden received even more than that.  What changed in 2020 is that a relatively small number of people, who lean Democrat and who either did not vote in 2016 or who voted for a third party candidate, came out for Biden.  

Why Trump Lost

I deliberately said that Trump lost and not that Biden won because this election appears to have been about Trump.  People were either pro or anti Trump, and not particularly excited about Biden.  Those opposed to Trump, however, rallied around Biden in record numbers.

Trump did not lose votes.  In 2016 Trump got about 63 million votes nationwide.  This year, he will probably be over 70 million once all the votes are counted.  Clinton got about 66 million votes in 2016, while Biden will get about 74 million in 2020.  So, everyone who voted for Trump in 2016 probably still voted for Trump again in 2020.  But many Democrats, and Democrat-leaning independents, turned out in even greater numbers.

Look, for example, at Michigan.  In 2016, Trump beat Clinton by about 10,000 votes.  He won 2,279,543 to Clinton's 2,268,839.  In 2020, Trump increased his vote total to  2,648,818, but Biden beat him by nearly 150,000 votes, garnering 2,795,714.  So even though Trump increased his vote total in the state by 16%, he still lost a state that he won in 2016.

So, what changed?  In 2016 many Democrat leaning voters were not crazy about Clinton.  Many voted for third party candidates, about 4% nationwide, 5% in Michigan.  By contrast, in 2020, only about 1.5% of all votes went to third parties.  In 2016, many voters were convinced Clinton would win anyway and voted third party to express dissatisfaction with both major party candidates.  In 2020, I don't think voters were more enthusiastic about Biden as a candidate.  Rather, they preferred a Democrat to Trump and realized that voting for a third party could give reelection to Trump.

Many others stayed home four years ago.  Voter participation in 2016 was about 55%.  This year, it will be about 66%.  Many voters who do not regularly vote, did vote this year, again mostly out of increased opposition to Trump rather than out of specific positive feelings for Biden.  So the big change this year was mostly a matter of participation and focus on the two major party candidates.  It was not a matter of any voters really changing party loyalty from four years ago.  Biden did not win back any Trump voters.  He managed to turn out non-voters or third party voters in greater numbers, which benefited him at the margins.

White working class voters still remain relatively hostile to the Democratic party.  They like Trump as an anti-establishment candidate because they see the establishment as working against their interests.  They accept the premise that Democrat taxes, regulations, and trade policies kill jobs and slow the economy.  Trump promised to improve their lives. Even if he did not deliver, they blame Democrat opposition for that failure and not Trump's inability to keep his promises.  As a result, they continue their support for Trump.

Because these close elections are won or lost at the margins, the margins favored Trump in 2016 but not in 2020.  We have not seen any major shift in voters' views toward either party though.

Lessons for 2024

Trump was able to put together a winning coalition in 2016 by appearing as the anti-establishment candidate, just as Obama did in 2008 and 2012.  Voters have never liked Washington insiders.  That is why sitting Senators or Congressmen have only won the Presidency three or four times in the history of the republic.

Trump's victory in 2016 tapped into that anti-establishment voter sentiment.  His loss in 2020 appears primarily the result of stirring up too much animus in the opposition, resulting in the far greater opposition turnout and focused voting against his reelection. 

Critical to any victory is success in the mid-west.  Democrats have a lock on New England, mid-Atlantic states and the west coast. Republicans have a fairly solid lock on the south (with the exception of Florida which always swings) as well as the middle plains states and most of the mountain states.  If a major party candidate can come challenge one of those opposing strongholds, that can greatly change the election.  For example, if the Democrats nominated someone who was popular in Texas, or the Republicans nominated someone popular in New York, that could change everything.  But barring that, the election comes down to Florida and the Midwest.

Midwestern white working class voters tend to be very anti-establishment.  They generally believe that government does not have their best interests at heart and that they are being left behind.  Trump was able to tap into that sentiment in 2016 with his protectionist views and his claims that he could bring back manufacturing jobs.  Despite a failure to deliver, he retained most of his support.

A future Republican candidate will need to be able to tap into that same pool of midwestern voters.  Such a candidate must do so without alienating other groups that were able to defeat the Trump coalition in key mid-west states.

Similarly, a Democratic candidate must convince these same voters that he or she has their interests at heart.  Biden had tried to express an emotional connection with these voters, but many still saw him as an establishment candidate who favored the traditional big government agenda that these voters distrust.

 

Both parties need to focus on the mid-west if they want to win the White House in 2024.  Although appeals to Hispanics, women, young people, etc. are all important, appeals to the white working class voters of the mid-west seem the most critical to any future election.

The Morning After - 2020 Who Won?

 Trump has made the election closer than any poll showed.  

In Florida, the consensus of ten polls on the two days before the elections showed Biden ahead by 2.7%.  The election results, not quite complete, show Trump winning state by about 3.5%. That is a more than 6% margin of error!  

In Georgia, poll results showed a squeaker Biden victory of 0.2%.  Instead, it appears that Trump will carry the state by about 2.2%. Similarly North Carolina polls gave Biden an increasingly narrowing lead, finish with just a 0.3% lead the day before the election.  Results indicate that Trump will probably win the state by about 2%.  Neither state has been called by the major news organizations yet, but it appears Trump will win both.

One can go through all the battleground states seeing the Trump consistently beat the margin of error by several percentage points.  Since all of the margins seem to fall consistently in Trump's favor, it indicate that the majority of polling firms simply got their turnout assumptions wrong.  Of course, there will be months ahead to diagnose all that.

As of 5:00 AM eastern time, as I write this, the election is still in dispute  As I predicted, if the election was tight, the results would come down to Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.  Consensus polling on the day before the election showed Biden ahead in all three States:

• Wisconsin, Biden +9.2%
• Michigan, Biden +5.4%
• Pennsylvania, Biden +3.7%

Those are pretty steep numbers for Trump to overcome.  However, Trump is leading in the counts in all three of those states: 

Wisconsin, Biden +0.2%

Michigan, Trump +4.9%

Pennsylvania, Trump +12.9%

In an ordinary election year with the majority of votes counted, one would probably predict Trump the winner of both Michigan and Pennsylvania.  But for so many reasons, this is not an ordinary election year.  Most of the uncounted votes are paper mail in ballots where Biden is doing considerably better than Trump.  Michigan and Pennsylvania only have about 75% of all votes counted, most of which were in person votes, that were expected to lean Trump.  Also, many of the uncounted votes in Pennsylvania are from Philadelphia and Pittsburgh: both Biden strongholds.  It is possible the states may still swing back to Biden, but a 12.9% deficit is a big one to overcome.

Biden could still win the election without Pennsylvania, if he manages to hold on to Arizona and Nevada, both of which are still too close to call.  In Arizona, Biden leads by 5% in the count. In Nevada Biden leads by less than 1%.  So, the election is still far from over.  

States are frantically working to produce final results as Trump has called for an end to counting the rest of the votes, in defiance of all election norms.  If Biden manages to win in late counts, Trump and his supporters will complain about a stolen election, that they had won on election night and that the establishment somehow stole the election from them.

This was a story that Democrats hoped to avoid by having a result that put Biden in a substantial lead that could not realistically be question.  Once again though, Trump has defied conventional wisdom, overperformed polling results, and will likely continue the fight in the courts, in the streets, and by any means necessary.

Will Pennsylvania be the Keystone to the 2020 Election?

Trump has seen a small improvement in the polls in the final week of the campaign.  He has slight leads of 1%-2% in the critical states of Iowa and Ohio.  He is within the margin of error, less than 3% in Florida, North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona.  If Trump can manage to win all of those close states, as well as the states where he is expected to win more easily, he could have 259 electoral votes.  

Three states that Trump won in 2016 seem to be leaning to Biden: Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.  Biden's lead in Wisconsin has widened in polls to around 9%-10%.  Michigan gives a 5%-6% point Biden lead in the polls.  If Biden wins Michigan, both candidates could have 259 votes.  At that point, Pennsylvania, with its 20 electoral votes, would decide the election.  As of election day, polls show Biden with a 3%-4% lead in Pennsylvania, within the margin of error, and in a State where Trump has defeated poll expectations before.

Pennsylvania election law does not permit poll workers to begin counting paper ballots until election day.  So if the election comes down to Pennsylvania, what happens.

If you are old enough, you remember Florida in the 2000 elections, when that decisive state took weeks to turn in a final count.  Both parties attempted to manipulate the process, either through the courts, in the media, or in street protests.  That process could repeat itself in Pennsylvania in 2020, on steroids.

Given the level of emotions and accusations of cheating and unfair election practices, the whole legitimacy of representative elected government comes into question.

None of this may happen if a few other States put a candidate so far ahead that the outcome in Pennsylvania won't be determinative.  Of course it is also possible that two or three other states are too close to call and that we have both parties pushing their desired outcome in several key states.

The sad case is that if the election is close, it may become violent.  If it becomes violent, the State of the Union could be in question to such an extent for the first time since the 1860's.

What to watch on election night 2020.  

Traditionally major news organization will wait to call a state for a candidate until the polls close in that state.  They used to make earlier predictions, but were criticized for having possibly inaccurate predictions affect the turnout in key states.   Therefore, they now wait until the polls close.  In many cases the outcome was a foregone conclusion. If an election in a given state appears to be a route, the new organizations will call it within the first minute of polls closing. If there is still doubt, they will wait to see more results.

This year will be tougher to call early for many states.  Large numbers of write in ballots meant that it could take days, rather than hours, to call an outcome.  When states begin to provide partial results, it is easy to think of those numbers as a good sampling of the ultimate count.  This is not the case.  Many times some jurisdictions produce results faster than others.  Since a candidate doing well in some parts of a state does not indicate how they will do in others, that is not a reliable indicator. However, if a candidate is doing much better or worse in a particular precinct, that may be more indicative.

The conventional wisdom in 2020 is that Biden will do better in the written ballots.  Trump supporters are more likely to avoid Covid-19 risks and go to the polls in person.  Biden supporters are more likely to submit mail in ballots.  Therefore, you may see early Trump leads in many states as electronic polling results are submitted, then see that lead fade when the mail in votes are counted.  Some states, like the key swing state of Pennsylvania, do not allow poll workers even to begin counting mail in ballots until election day.  Therefore, the tedious process of counting ballots that were mailed a month ago may take days to count after election day. 

7:00 PM eastern time is when the first polls (I'm going to use eastern time for all times I mention, just for consistency's sake).  I'm going to put in bold those key states that are considered ones to watch closely:

• Georgia - is up for grabs but went Trump in2016.  Biden has a slight edge in the polls.  It will probably be too close to call right away. A Biden win in Georgia probably spells doom for Trump.  An early call for Trump here would not be fatal for Biden but might indicate a trend of Trump appearing stronger than the polls predict. Georgia also has a tossup Senate race (actually two) which may decide control of the Senate.
• Indiana - conservative home of the VP should be an early call for Trump
• Kentucky - conservative and should be an early call for Trump.  Senator Mitch McConnell has faced serious competition here but is expected to win.
• South Carolina - conservative and should be an early call for Trump.  Senator Lindsey Graham has an even tougher fight, but is expected to win.  An unlikely Graham defeat would presage almost certain Democrat control of the Senate
• Virginia - has trended Democrat in recent elections and should be an early call for Biden.
• Vermont - liberal bastion should be an early call for Biden.

Shortly after 7:00 a likely tie election would have an electoral count like this (if you see a candidate begin to exceed these numbers, he is the likely winner):

Biden - 16

Trump - 44

7:30 PM has three poll closings:

• North Carolina - This is a swing state that voted for Trump in 2016. Biden has a slight edge in the polls.  Whoever wins here will be a good indication for the overall winner.  Although Biden still has a good path to victory without this state, Trump does not. NC also has a tossup Senate campaign that may indicate control of the Senate.
• Ohio - generally a conservative leaning state that voted for Trump in 2016.  The race is a statistical dead heat here.  Trump really must win Ohio to have any chance of a national victory.
• West Virginia - conservative state that should be an early call for Trump.

Shortly after 7:30 a likely tie election would have an electoral count like this:

Biden - 16

Trump - 82

8:00 sees a large number of poll closings:

• Alabama - conservative state that should be an early call for Trump.
• Connecticut - liberal state that should be an early call for Biden.
• Delaware - liberal state that should be an early call for favorite-son Biden.
• Florida - this traditional swing state went for Trump in 2016.  It is a must win for Trump in 2020.  Biden has a slight electoral advantage.  Florida will likely be too close to call on election night.
• Illinois - liberal state that should be an early call for Biden.
• Maine - liberal state that should be an early call for Biden.  The state has one electoral vote granted by congressional district.  One of these may be close.  That one swing district it worth watching. Maine also has a tossup Senate campaign that may impact control of the Senate.
• Maryland - liberal state that should be an early call for Biden.
• Massachusetts - liberal state that should be an early call for Biden.
• Mississippi - conservative state that should be an early call for Trump.
• Missouri - conservative state that should be an early call for Trump.
• New Hampshire - leaning liberal state that can be the Republican's best hope for a state win in New England.  Even so, the state is expected to go for Biden.
• New Jersey - liberal state that should be an early call for Biden.
• Oklahoma - conservative state that should be an early call for Trump.
• Pennsylvania - liberal leaning state that went for Trump in 2016.  Biden is well ahead in the polls, but don't expect an early call here.  Trump may have a lead in the results until paper ballots are counted.  
• Rhode Island - liberal state that should be an early call for Biden.
• Tennessee - conservative state that should be an early call for Trump.
• Washington, D.C. - liberal does not describe DC strongly enough.  It has never voted for anyone but a Democrat in its history of voting.  I can call it a week in advance for Biden.

Shortly after 8:00 a likely tie election would have an electoral count like this:

Biden - 116

Trump - 154

8:30 only one state, Arkansas reports  - conservative state that should be an early call for Trump.

Shortly after 8:30 a likely tie election would have an electoral count like this:

Biden - 116

Trump - 160

9:00 - If the results in key states here are known early, that should end speculation about the ultimate winner.

• Arizona - a traditionally conservative state that voted for Trump in 2016, but is trending for Biden this year.  Results here are too close to call and may be an indicator of the national results.
• Colorado - has trended Democrat in recent elections and it expected to be an early call for Biden.
• Kansas - conservative state that should be an early call for Trump.
• Louisiana - conservative state that should be an early call for Trump.
• Michigan - this traditionally liberal state voted for Trump in 2016.  Biden is significantly ahead in the polls this year.  A Biden win here could spell the end for Trump. 
• Minnesota - This traditionally liberal state has the longest Democrat voting streak it the country.  Trump came close to winning hear in 2016.  Biden has substantial polling lead and should be an early call for Biden.
• Nebraska  - conservative state that should be an early call for Trump.
• New Mexico - liberal state that should be an early call for Biden.
• New York - liberal state that should be an early call for Biden.
• North Dakota  - conservative state that should be an early call for Trump.
• South Dakota  - conservative state that should be an early call for Trump.
• Texas - this traditionally conservative state has been showing signs of becoming a swing state in recent elections.  Trump holds a slight polling advantage. If the state fails to go for Trump early, that could presage the end of the election. It is a must-win state for Trump.
• Wisconsin - another traditionally Democrat state where Trump won a slim victory in 2016.  Biden seems to be doing well in the polls.  This is another swing state that should be determinative.
• Wyoming - conservative state that should be an early call for Trump.

Shortly after 9:00 a likely tie election would have an electoral count like this:

Biden - 185

Trump - 247

10:00 If the election is still in contention by this time, a couple of states here may be determinative.

• Iowa - this state trends Republican and went for Trump in 2016.  Biden has a very slight polling lead.  This is a Trump must-win state or could presage a Biden landslide.
• Montana - conservative state that should be an early call for Trump.
• Nevada - this state has trended liberal and by a slim margin supported Clinton in 2016.  Trump had hoped for a pickup here, but is trending Biden.
• Utah - conservative state that should be an early call for Trump.

Shortly after 10:00 a likely tie election would have an electoral count like this:

Biden - 191

Trump - 262

11:00 closes polls on the west coast, which is a Biden must area.

• California - liberal state that should be an early call for Biden.
• Idaho - conservative state that should be an early call for Trump.
• Oregon - liberal state that should be an early call for Biden.
• Washington - liberal state that should be an early call for Biden.

Shortly after 11:00 a likely tie election would have an electoral count like this:

Biden - 265

Trump - 266

12:00 sees polls close for Hawaii - liberal state that should be an early call for Biden.

Shortly after 12:00 a likely tie election would have an electoral count like this:

Biden - 269

Trump - 266

1:00 sees polls close in Alaska - conservative state that should be an early call for Trump.

Shortly after 1:00 a likely tie election would have an electoral count like this:

Biden - 269

Trump - 269

=====================================

Key Senate Races to watch on election night:

• Georgia (two seats)
• North Carolina
• Maine
• Iowa
• Montana

Democrats must win two of these seats to hold fifty in the Senate.  Republicans must win four.  Fifty votes give control to the party in the White House since the Vice President breaks all ties.

My Predictions for President

Election predictions are more of an art than a science.  Sure, 80% of state results are a given, but those remaining 20% are usually decisive.  This year is no different.  Most forecasts point to a Biden victory.  Of course, most forecasts pointed to a Clinton victory four years ago, so why believe forecasts this year?

Forecasts take polls of usually a few thousand voters and then extrapolate the results.  They skew their samples to certain demographics.  For example, if a poll had 20% respondents of African Americans but pollsters know that African Americans tend to make up 10% of the voters on election day, they may cut in half the value of the results from their sample.  This is an attempt to correct for sampling errors in the original polling sample.

Of course, to make these corrections, pollsters must guess at voter turnout based on demographics.  Pollsters often guess wrong.  For example, white non-college educated voters turned out in record numbers in 2016, giving Trump a surprise victory.  Some observers noted the enthusiasm of Trump rallies and predicted this higher turnout.  Most pollsters ignore information like that which was hard to quantify.

This year, we are seeing much higher turnout for traditional Democratic voters.  Although they are not showing up at rallies, we are seeing record early voting, and voters standing in long lines to vote early. We are also seeing record returns of mail in voting thanks to many state changes that encouraged mail in voting this year.  Both of those trends tend to favor Democrats.  I would not be suprised if there were five to ten million more total votes this year than in 2016.  A total turnout of 135 million voters, as opposed to 129 million in 2016, would almost certainly favor Biden.

Also, in 2016, much of the undecided vote when to Trump in the last two weeks of the election.  Much of this is blamed on the decision of the Obama Justice Department to re-open the investigation into Clinton's emails in late October.  It made the discussion all about an issue that hurt the Democratic candidate.  This October, there were attempts to push a story about some emails about Biden's son Hunter which indicated corruption.  That story has been far less persuasive to voters, probably because it is coming from the other campaign rather than a more objective source. Instead, most discussion has remained on the Covid-19 pandemic, which is again reaching record levels, and which impacted the White House directly with infections in October.  Focus on that issue can only hurt Trump and help Biden.

As a result of more determined turnout and focus on Covid a the October surprise issue, I expect the small undecided vote to swing in favor of Biden.  The end result is that I predict Biden will win every state that Clinton won in 2016, plus seven other states that Trump won narrowly that year.  Those states are Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, Florida, and Arizona.  If this proves correct, Biden will win an overwhelming victory of 351 electoral votes to 187 for Trump.

Note that even if Trump manages to win five of those seven states, Biden would still win the election by a more narrow margin.  If Biden wins Pennsylvania, where he has had more than a 5% margin in most polls, the election is probably over Trump would have to win the others, including Michigan and Wisconsin where Biden is an 8 point favorite.  Trump must win the closer states of Arizona, Georgia, Florida, and North Carolina where Biden is up 1-4 points.  He must also win Iowa and Ohio where the candidates are in a statistical tie. Even with all those wins, Trump would also have to win either Michigan or Pennsylvania to put him over the top.  In short, there are few realistic scenarios for a Trump victory.

All of that said, there may not be a winner called on election night.  Many key states may be too close to call, and may take days to count all the paper ballots submitted this year.  Trump may show an early lead from in person voting, then see that lead disappear as paper ballots are counted.  Democrats are tending to vote by paper in much higher numbers than Republicans.  This, unfortunately, will play into Trumps assertions that paper ballots are fraudulent and that the election was somehow stolen from him.  If a couple of states are close and determinative of the elections, expect post-election litigation and political wrangling that will make Florida 2000 look like a cotillion. 

What a Biden Landslide Looks Like

With the Election only one week away, and with more than one-third of voters already having voted online, momentum seems clearly in Biden's favor. Focus on the Covid-19 epidemic has been unavoidable after the President and most of his staff came down with the illness. Undecideds appear to swing heavily toward Biden. 

 That said, Trump supporters seem more motivated and optimistic than ever. If the level of support in one's vote mattered, Trump would likley have a much better position. But the old one-person, one-vote standard leans in Biden's favor. Many voters who sat out 2016 because they were not crazy about either major party candidate seem to regret that decions and are voting in record numbers. In some states, early voting will surpass the total voting in that state four years earlier. Polling shows biden with solid leads int he key states of Wisconsin (6.8%) Michigan (7.0%) and Pennsylvania (7.2%). These three traditionally Democratic states gave Trump his victory in 2016. Without them, it is hard to see any possible path to a Trump victory. Overcoming a 2-3% polling deficit was possible in 2016. 

It's hard to see overcoming a 7% deficit, especially when high voter turnout benefits Biden. Rather, undecideds seem to be breaking toward Biden. The Biden campaign is pushing for some traditionally red states. Now, this is an old trick. Campaigning in some traditionally red states gets the media push the story line that the election will be a rout and that the campaign has already locked down the toss-ups. Hillary Clinton campaigned in Texas in October 2016 in an attempt to push this story. So, it's not always to be believed. 

The Biden campaign is campaigning in the traditionally red state of Texas, where the two most recent polls show a Biden Victory. The Morning Consult polls showed Trump leading in the state 49% to 47% on October 13. Just over a week later, on October 22, that same poll showed a 48%-47% Biden victory. Another 10/25 poll shows a 48% to 45% Biden victory. Overall the last ten polls going back a month still give Trump the edge at 1.6%. But if Texas is in contention, the election is already over. 

There are similar trends appearing in other must win states. In Georgia, the latest poll gives Biden a 47%-46% win in the State, even if the polling average still gives Trump a 1% edge. North Carolina polls show Biden wins in 8 out of 10 polls (one is a tie and one gives Trump a 1% edge). Florida shows the same results in Biden's favor. 

Only in the battleground states of Iowa and Ohio does Trump seem to be holding his own. The only state running clearly counter to this trend is Arizona, where a pretty consistent 5% Biden lead has disappeared in the two most recent polls. Arizona is a must-win for Trump but only a pile-on State for Biden. 

If Biden can manage to swing last minute undecideds in his favor, and pick up all states where polls show him within 2% of winning, the electoral map would look like this:  

That is 413 electoral votes to 125. We haven't seen a victory that lopsided since the first George Bush in in 1988.  A Democrat hasn't pulled that off since 1964.  If it's any consolation to Republicans, neither candidate after those two past lopsided wins managed to win reelection.

For 2020, it is hard to see a path to reelection. 538 gives Biden an 87% chance of winning.  In any scenario for a Trump victory, he must sweep all the close states and win one of the three key states of Wisconsin, Michigan, or Pennsylvania, where Biden appears to have an insurmountable lead.  Even if Trump wins every state south of Virginia, plus pulls off victories in Arizona, Iowa, and Ohio, he still comes up short by about ten votes.

Polls have been wrong before, but this year polling errors may break in favor of Biden, given the unusually large turnout.  I cannot see any realistic outcome other than a clear Biden electoral victory at the polls.

2020 Senate Predictions

With the appearance of a Democratic Presidential victory in November, the next question is whether Democrats will retake the Senate.  If so, that could make the next administration's legislative agenda much easier (assuming the Democrats retain the House as expected).  

Changing the Senate Majority

Winning a Democratic majority in the Senate will require several victories in traditionally red states. Currently, Democrats hold 47 Senate seats to Republican 53 (I count two independents who caucus with the Democrats as Democrats for these purposes).  Democrats must win three seats to get to a 50-50 tie, which would be broken by the Vice President.  Democrats hold 35 seats not up for election this year, whil Republicans hold only 30.

For 2020, Republicans hold 9 seats that are considered so safe that there no realistic chance of a Democratic victory there.  Democrats hold 7 safe seats.  That leaves 19 States at issue.

Republican Safe Seats

Of those remaining, Republican have two likely wins in Kentucky and Mississippi.  Kentucky Senator Mitch McConnell is facing a fierce challenge, but is expected to win 538 gives him a 96% chance of victory. Similarly, Democrat Mike Espy has made Mississippi a fight, but 538 gives incumbent Cindy Hyde-Smith a 91% chance of victory.  Hyde-Smith beat Espy in a 2018 special election by more than 7 points.

Six other states lean likely Republican:

1. Texas - Military veteran and teach Mary Jane Hegar hoped to give incumbent John Cornyn a run for his money in Texas as Cornyn seeks his fourth term.  Attacks on Cornyn's support for conservative judicial nominees have not had an impact in this red state. 538 gives Cornyn an 86% chance of victory.
2. Alaska - This remains a solidly red state.  Democrats could not even find an opponent to take on incumbent Daniel Sullivan.  Independent Candidate Al Gross has taken the Demoratic support in the State.  Even so, 538 gives Sullivan an 80% chance of reelection.
3. Kansas - Sen. Pat Roberts' decision to step down left an open seat in this red state.  Roger Marshall is expected to beat Barbara Bollier, given a chance of 73% by 538.
4. South Carolina - Democrats have smelled blood in the water, going after three term Senator Lindsey Graham.  Jamie Harrison has put up a well funded challenge in this red state.  538 gives Graham a 78% chance of reelection, while polls show Graham with a six point lead.
5. Georgia - Republican incumbent Sonny Purdue gets a 72% chance of reelection as Democrats focus on the other seat in that state (more on that later).
6. Alabama - Democrat Doug Jones won a surprise victory in a 2017 special election after his opponent was accused of sexual assault against several women, including minors.  This year, with Jones facing a non-child molester opponent in Republican Tommy Tuberville, Republicans expect to take back this seat in a very red state.  538 gives Tuberville a 72% chance of victory.

Democratic Safe Seats

Democrats expect almost certain wins in three states: New Hampshire (Jeanne Shaheen), Minnesota (Tina Smith), and New Mexico (Ben Ray Lujan).  None of these blue states in a blue year show any sign of changing.

There remain four other seats that are likely Democrat wins:

1. Colorado - In a strong year for Republicans, Cory Gardner narrowly defeated incumbent Mark Udall. As he seeks reelection in a blue state in a blue year, he faces popular former Democratic Governor John Hickenlooper, who has a double digit lead in most polls.  538 gives Hickenlooper an 80% chance of victory.
2. Arizona - In 2018, Martha McSally ran for the Senate seat in Arizona, and lost.  Then, Sen. John McCain died, and after a short interim period by John Kyle, the Republican Governor appointed McSally to the Senate in 2019.  She faces a challenge from astronaut Mark Kelly.  538 gives Kelly a 79% chance of victory.
3. Michigan  - First term incumbent Gary Peters has seen some weakness in this traditionally blue state.  Challenger John James has shown a surprising strength but remains consistently behind int he polls.  Peters is not expected to do as well as Biden does at the top of the ticket, but still gets a 79% chance of victory from 538.
4. Maine - In a traditionally blue state, Republican incumbent Susan Collins has won four Senate elections as a moderate, six years ago with nearly 70% of the vote.  However, Collins' support for Trump has cost her politically among Maine voters.  Opposition to impeachment and support for Supreme Court Justice Kavanaugh have greatly diminished her support in the state.  Speaker of the Maine House Sara Gideon has a 63% chance of victory according to 538.

Toss-up Seats

If all the likely elections go as expected the Democrats will hold 49 seats to 47 for the Republicans.  Four toss up states will decide the majority.  If the Democrats win the White House, a victory in any one of  these toss up states will give them control of the Senate.

Georgia: The wildest election of these four is the seat in Georgia.  While this is traditionally a red state, Biden is slightly ahead in most state polls. Johnny Isaakson resigned the seat in 2019, citing health reasons.  The Republican governor appointed Kelly Loeffler, who almost immediately faced opposition from fellow Republican Doug Collins.  This has made the election a three way race between the two Republicans and Democratic candidate Raphael Warnock.  If no candidate gets 50%, there will be a runoff election in January.

Current polls give Warnock about 31% of the vote, with incumbent Loeffler 23% and fellow Republican Collins 21%. Two other democratic candidates take another 8% combined, plus nearly 2% for the Libertarian candidate.  Almost certainly Warnock will be in the runoff election.  He will likely face Loeffler but no one has counted out Collins yet.  Regardless of which Republican goes to the runoff, 538 predicts a 51% chance of that candidate winning the runoff.

Iowa: Incumbent Republican Senator Joni Ernst was not favored to win in 2014 when she entered the competition for an open seat.  Her effective attacks on President Obama and considerable outside funding propelled her to an eight point victory in a strong year for Republicans.  Since Trump's election, the State had favored Democrats making the challenge from Theresa Greenfield a close one.

Both major parties have targeted this election and have spent record amounts in the state. In September, Ernst held pretty solid lead over her opponent. That lead slowly eroded until tracking polls gave Greenfield the edge on Oct. 7.  Currently, polling gives Greenfield an edge of about 0.5% over the incumbent.  538 gives Greenfield a 52% chance of victory.  

North Carolina: This traditionally Republican State has moved to the left in recent elections.  Incumbent Thom Tillis took office in 2014 barely winning in a strong year for Republicans.  Democrats have targeted this race with a strong chance of flipping it.  Challenger Cal Cunningham was recruited because his moderate profile and military background would appeal to North Carolina voters.  His wealth also ensured his campaign would be well funded.

Cunningham's lead in the polls took a hit in early October, when it was revealed that he had an affair with a female consultant on his campaign.  Around the same time, Tillis came down with Covid, which has prevented him from campaigning.  With these October surprises the result remains up in the air. Cunningham remains ahead in the polls by about 3%, and 538 gives him a 66% chance of victory.

Montana: Incumbent Steve Daines won in this red state in a strong Republican year of 2014, and after the Democratic candidate had to withdraw from the race less than 60 days before the election.  Daines' fairly solid conservative voting record made his chances of reelection good, until the popular Democratic Governor Steve Bullock opted to run against him.

While the race has been fairly tight, Daines maintains a roughly 3% edge over Bullock in most polls.  538 gives Daines a 68% chance of victory.

What to Watch on Election Night

Georgia will almost certainly be a runoff, and therefore inconclusive.  A Senate win in any one of three states: North Carolina, Iowa, or Montana will indicate likely Democratic control of the Senate in 2021.  

2020 Elections Two Weeks Out

Polls remain relatively unchanged from last week.  Biden remains the favorite with an estimated 87% chance of victory in the general election.  The last major event of the campaign, the final debate, is still scheduled for this week.

Biden supporters seem optimistic.  There have been no real game changing October surprises this year.  The biggest surprise was probably Trump and much of his top administration contracting Covid-19.  This put attention back on the pandemic at a time when infection rates nationally seem to be on the rise again. This works against Trump, who wants to focus on other issues and his claim that a vaccine is just around the corner. 

Trump's other hope for the election was his claim of credit for the economy.  With record unemployment continuing and other sagging indicators, Trump has focused on the fact that the stock market has retained its value.  Even so, with layoffs increasing after federal restrictions ended on October 1, and the failure of the federal government to pay for a second round of relief, it is not clear how much longer the economy can sustain even at current levels, or whether there will be a market crash.

Trump supporters, however, remain hopeful.  They point to 2016 polls that showed Trump behind Clinton until election day.  Republicans have argued that the polls are biased or simply wrong becaue many Trump supporters are skeptical of participating in them.

Pollsters have adjusted polling this year with an expectation of higher turnout of people with less than a college degree.  Higher turnout of this group in 2016 is largely believed to account for Trump's win.  However, even if Trump support does turn out a few points higher than polls expect, Biden's lead could still withstand that.

Trump Path to Victory

If Trump can win every state where Biden polls under 50% (in other words Trump wins 100% of undecideds, which are as much as 10% in some States) he has a path to victory, as seen in this map.

In this scenario, Trump wins every state he won in 2016, except for Michigan and Wisconsin.  He picks up Nevada, which he lost by the tightest of margins in 2016.

Narrow wins in Wisconsin and Michigan were key to Trumps 2016 win.  Polling shows Biden up by over 6% in both states, with Biden at 50% and Trump at 43% in both.  Those seem like unsurmountable hurdles at this point.

Key States

Is this Trump-win scenario realistic? I doubt it.  To see why, let's look at the ten closest states as indicated by 2070toWin reported polling averages: Georgia, Iowa, Ohio, Florida, Arizona, North Carolina, Texas, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Alaska.  In the above map, most of those states are must-wins for Trump (he could lose one or two of the smaller states like Iowa or Nevada).  Polling shows Biden ahead in seven of them.  These include the "Trump must win" states of North Carolina, Florida, Georgia, and Pennsylvania.

Pennsylvania may be the hardest state on this list for Trump to win.  Biden's polling lead has gone down slightly from about 6% to just under 5% in the past week.  Even so, most experts give Pennsylvania to Biden, even though Trump won there in 2016.  Every single poll reported on 270towin shows a Biden victory there, between 3% and 11%.  The consensus shows Biden at 49%, Trump 44% with 7% other/undecided.  Nevada looks similarly insurmountable with Biden winning every poll in that state by 2%-14%.  Consensus polls give Biden 48% to Trump's 42%, with 10% other/undecided. Arizona, likewise gives Biden a 3% edge Biden 49% to Trump 46% with Biden winning 9 out of 10 polls.

Florida and Georgia are generally considered toss-ups.  Consensus polls put Biden ahead by less than 1% in Georgia.  Traditional voter suppression tactics for black voters in Georgia will probably be effective in keeping that state red.  Similarly, Florida Republicans have been pretty effective in nullifying a State referendum to restore voting rights to ex-felons.  This could have led to several hundred thousand more Democratic votes in this notoriously close state.  Republican efforts to suppress these votes have kept Florida within the margin of error. Consensus polling shows Biden 49%, Trump 47%, with 4% other/undecided.

Even if Trump wins Florida, Georgia, and a few other states where Biden has an edge, the path to victory is a difficult and narrow one for Trump.  The consensus map gives Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Nevada to Biden, which would assure him of victory.  Trump can win all the tossup states on this map and still lose the election.

October Surprise

Trump, therefore, must hope for an event that shakes up the election and changes voter minds.  In 2016, this happened in the days before the election when the Justice Department announced it would reopen an investigation into Hillary Clinton's emails.

Recently, the Trump Justice Department announce a new 2020 investigation into Hillary Clinton's emails.  This stunts seems laughably pathetic given that there is no new evidence of anything four years later, and it is unclear why voters would hold such an investigation of Clinton emails against Biden, as opposed to holding it against Clinton in 2016.

 In 2016, much of the attacks on Hillary Clinton, came from a concerted misinformation campaign run from Russia.  There are questions about whether Russia may attempt a similar last minute surprise i 2020.  There were reports earlier this year that Russian Hackers took emails from the Ukrainian gas company Burisma, which the Trump administration has accused of engaging in corruption involving Biden's son Hunter.  It is possible that Russia could release emails, intermingled with fraudulent emails that it has fabricated, in order to attack Biden.  Russia engaged in similar tactics during earlier European elections.

If there is still an October Surprise, it will be... well... a surprise.  In order to have its full effect, one would expect it to be released this week, just before the last Presidential debate.  That timing would provide maximum impact.

Absent some event that can alter voters by at least 5%.  It appears that Biden will be the President in 2021.

2020 elections - three weeks out.

 Four years ago, I found it inconceivable that Trump would win the presidency.  Much of that was focused on Clinton winning Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, which had been solidly Democratic for the prior twenty years.  

Trump's ability to make those inroads, along with capturing Florida, gave him the path to victory.  In 2016, many pollsters undercounted the enthusiasm of Trump voters, leading to heavier Republican turnout, and the real lack of enthusiasm among potential Clinton voters.  There was a marked drop off in minority democratic votes, not surprising given the record turnouts that Obama motivated.

This year, 2020, once again seems poised for a Democratic win.  Based on polling three weeks before the election, we see a prediction for a Biden landslide.

In this scenario, Trump loses Florida, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania - all states that he carried in 2016.  This map, I think, is the best case scenario for the Democrats in 2020.

There is an expectation that Trump supporters will once again exceed polling expectations.  There is an undercount, perhaps due to many Trump supporters not participating honestly in polls.  There is also the repeated risk of undercounting pro-Trump turnout due to Trump enthusiasm.

That said, at the risk of being wrong again, I don't think that will be as stark in 2020.  While Biden supporters are not particularly enthusiastic for Biden, they do not have the same level of hostility as they did to the Clinton campaign in 2016. Many liberal voters also regret sitting out 2016 and are not willing to make that mistake again.

Even with a bump for Trump enthusiasm, it is heard to see a path to Trump victory.  A map giving Trump every state where consensus polls show him within 5% of Biden still give a slim electoral victory to Biden.

In this scenario, Biden wins back the critical states of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, while holding on to every state that Clinton won.  If Trump cannot turn around a 6% or 7% polling deficit in those three states, it is difficult to imagine a path to reelection.